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Preston Gralla

Seeing Through Windows

Ex-Microsoftie: Linux will destroy Windows

44 comments

TAGS:Linux, Windows
IT TOPICS:Desktop Applications, Enterprise Software & Services, Linux, Open Source, Operating Systems, Software, Windows & Microsoft

It's not only long-time Linux true believers who say that Linux will eventually wipe out Windows. An former Microsoft employee of 11 years says that "proprietary software is eventually going to be doomed," and believes that Microsoft's future lies in releasing its own version of Linux.

Keith Curtis, former Microsoft Research employee and author of After the Software Wars, told an interviewer for Network World in a podcast that "I do believe that proprietary software is eventually going to be doomed."

His reasoning in the interview isn't exactly clear, and he doesn't go into details about how he believes open source software will kill off Windows. Essentially, he believes that there's an inevitability to the concept of free, which will ultimately overwhelm for-pay software. He says that right now many people "think free software is a house of cards," and that needs to change before open source will become dominant. He admits, though, "I don't know entirely how it will play out."

As for how Microsoft can survive if free software dominates, he believes the company should release its own version of Linux, saying:

"I think we could all be running Microsoft Linux...I sent an e-mail to Steve Ballmer about this and he said he wasn't interested...Microsoft could very easily dominate the Linux market if they wanted to."

He also claims that technology will progress more quickly using free software than proprietary software. He writes in his book:

"The key to faster technological progress is making software free. The difference between free, and non-free or proprietary software, is similar to the divide between science and alchemy. Before science, there was alchemy, where people guarded their ideas because they wanted to corner the market on the mechanisms used to convert lead into gold."

I agree with very little of what Curtis says. Just because something is free does not inevitably mean that it is superior to something that you pay for --- often it's the exact opposite. And I also don't agree that making things free is always the proper engine for technological growth. Frequently, the profit motive drives technology breakthroughs.

Still, the podcast is well worth a listen, whether you're a fan of Linux or Windows.

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Naaa!

Submitted by BrentP on November 6, 2009 - 3:42 P.M.

First off, I am a long time Linux user and enthusiast, but those who think Linux is going to wipe out Windows anytime soon, severely underestimates Microsoft. Windows has gained too many dependencies to have a sudden significant loss of Market share to Linux, and I think by the time Linux starts gaining significant portions of market share, the game will have completely changed. If you want the most dangerous Linux enemy for Microsoft, it will be Google Chrome OS (Linux) and Software as Service offerings such as Google Docs. With that said, Google still has a long way to go.

My humble opinion

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Where is my post?

Submitted by Mark Bench on November 6, 2009 - 1:59 P.M.

What happened to my post from yesterday?

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Open Source is good at some things, bad at others

Submitted by Anonymous on November 6, 2009 - 11:38 A.M.

Open Source has some real advantages. Managing projects that appeal to the masses is not one of them. Microsoft, because it is a profit enterprise has several advantages Linux does not and I don't believe the researcher took these into consideration.

It all comes down to motivation.

People writing Linux do so because they love to be part of the project. It feeds their egos and they get their jollies when they contribute. This is a good thing.

Unfortunately my experience with Computer People in general is that they want to be on the newest project with the most exciting technology, not supporting some 8 year old dog that everyone wants to forget. As a result, support for older versions of any OS lacks.

That is where MS comes out on top. Since they pay people to maintain the old dogs, those dogs can stay afloat for many years, just like XP did.

That kind of stability is necessary for businesses, and Linux has not been able to match the stability, release schedule, maintenance of old releases, etc. It's a very expensive proposition.

Only time will tell, but I doubt Linux will plow MS into the ground any time soon.

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stability, release schedule and maintenance of Linux

Submitted by Paul on November 10, 2009 - 11:21 A.M.

I must disagree with you on some points especially in the paragraph about stability, release schedule, and maintenance.

Feeding egos: your comments about Linux enthusiasts needing to feed their egos was pretty pompous. Could it not rather be that they see a need and hope to make things easier for themselves and others?

Stability: Linux is known for it's stability. I attended a class where the teacher said that he habitually had problems with Windows servers but his boss refused to consider Linux. The teacher secretly installed Linux on the servers and the only difference people noticed was that they did not have all the problems. After 3 years of uptime he only had to take one server down because of a hard drive failure.

Release schedule: Major Linux distributions have regular release schedules (usually annually or every 6 months) which is more than you can say about Microsoft Windows.

Maintenance: Linux servers usually have patches and updates pushed out in a few days rather than the weeks often seen for patches to Windows servers. And as newer versions of Linux are free I have to ask why you would want to keep an older distribution? As the size of the kernel has not grown exponentially (as the Windows kernel has) it's not a strain on the hardware.

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You got ir completely wrong.

Submitted by Anonymous on November 6, 2009 - 12:19 P.M.

This is NOT true.

For example in the Linux community we still run tr. Old fashion command line character translator, that was written in the very early 70s for UNIX and remastered for now Linux. As a matter of fact ALL thousands of command line applications, written in the dawn of the UNIX days runs in Linux. Shells are being re-written all over, all the time, and so on and so forth.

You are flat wrong.

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The Superiority Comes From Open Source

Submitted by Anonymous on November 6, 2009 - 10:18 A.M.

It is not the free, as not costly, that will drive Linux superiority, but the open source aspect of it. I have no doubt that Microsoft developments will be doomed buy open source community developments.

This is a fact we can already see the last ten years.

When I started using Linux, it was much less powerful then proprietary UNIX, and Linux doomed UNIX. The next one will be Microsoft. It is already happening in all other fields other than the desktop. Microsoft is trying so hard to keep its grip on the Desktop that already lost ALL other battles. In the end Microsoft can even keep its grip on the Desktop field but it will be fruitless.

We can say Microsoft is doomed already. Can't you see it?

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Down, down, down

Submitted by David Legg on November 6, 2009 - 5:09 A.M.

With a vast market share, even having got rid of Microshaft Vasta, the only way for M$ to go is down ...

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Profit, Shmofit

Submitted by Olde Sarge on November 6, 2009 - 10:34 A.M.

As long as any software vender can exert monoplistic control there is no real impetus for true innovation. Profits a being maximized by not innovating. Keep cost low, profits grow. Once any application achieves majority status, innovation evaporates. There simply is no motivation left, prfits are already maximized.

Linux can gain and control the PC market as it fleshes out a solid desktop environment. Businesses/governments/individuals will eventually be motivated to economize. Linux distributions will be in a much better situation to offer excellent support to a very broad user base at very good, cost-effective price, say $15/seat to $30/seat and the user experience will be exhileratingly better.

Balmer should have listened!

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Linux will grow ...

Submitted by Orionds on November 6, 2009 - 4:39 A.M.

This is pretty much assured as we can see that it is. Mandriva just released their newest version and other distro developers are working just as hard. This is completely different from the early days of Mandriva (then Mandrake - pity, I like this name a lot better).

Adoption of Linux distros, particularly Ubuntu, is accelerating mainly because users want their computers to work, not have to deal with crashes, viruses, malware, upgrading their hardware when the present state of software is more than they need and just be able to access the Web, listen to music, watch video, share photos and a few other computing tasks that can all be handled by open source / Linux systems.

What is still preventing more general adoption of Linux are mainly ignorance and the comfort zone. The comfort zone took a beating with Vista and even XP eventually comes to an unusable state or just dies.

So, for retirees and youngsters, many of whom do not have special professional needs, Linux provides a stable, fast and light environment to do their computing and access the Web.

I see this with my teenage students who are quickly adopting Ubuntu because they are not tied to MS business systems. The calls for help have lessened.

One teenager, for example, used to call me on a regular basis for help when he was using XP, but since using Ubuntu about 3 months ago, not a peep and when I ask him, he just says that Ubuntu is very fast. Recently, I did get one call for help - this time on how to install Ubuntu on his mother's ancient Celeron, 256 meg ram notebook as XP has finally died on it and the cd rom was dead. I told him to set up a Ubuntu install flash drive using his PC. This took all of two minutes to show him how. He immediately left for home to get to work. That was 3 days ago. Again, no calls for help.

Will Windows die off? Probably not but the urgency is definitely there. MS is working hard to stave off further drops and what they fear most - their hold on the PC market - with new projects like silverlight like what they tried to do with activex. Will MS succeed? I don't think so and hope not, at least judging from their past attempts to try to kill of java and now their continuing attempts with ODF and the dominance of flash on the web, which have failed and met with opposition and obstacles.

One thing for sure - Linux will grow thanks to Windows' viruses, malware, bloat, co$t and restrictions that MS imposes.

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Should of told him to use

Submitted by Zachariah T on November 6, 2009 - 11:43 A.M.

Should of told him to use Xubuntu too due to memory limitations.
256 MB of a RAM isn't suited for Ubuntu, Xubuntu is closer suited and even then you should turn off the hardware driver and update manager etc, from session startup.( Xfce has a nice simple settings manager, for things like this, too ).
The just be aware if you are forced to install pulseaudio on Xubuntu, open synaptic search up -alsa then replace with -pulse counterparts. Also this forum post can help to with reconfiguring asound to be setup for pulseaudio.
http://ubuntuforums.org/showthread.php?t=789578

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