Could Linux become the world's most popular operating system?

Linux has no chance of catching Windows on the desktop, but that may not stop it from becoming more ubiquitous than Windows. One day, you'll most likely be running Linux, and there's a good chance you won't even know it. In that way, you'll be like millions of other people.

Microsoft has done a spectacular job of locking down the desktop for Windows. That battle is over; Linux lost.

But beyond the desktop, Windows is in trouble, and Linux has begun to shine. And beyond the desktop is where all the growth is today and will be in the future.

Start off with smartphones, whose sales have been booming, at the low end as well as at the high end. There was a time when Linux had practically no market share, and Windows had a sizable one.

That time is past. Android, which is based on a Linux kernel, will soon surpass Windows on smartphones, if it hasn't already. The latest market share figures from comScore shows that Android share continues to rocket, while Windows share continues to slip significantly. In May, comScore says, Android had a 13% share of the smartphone market, while Windows had 13.2%. Android was up 4% from February 2010, while Windows fell nearly 2%. You can see the figures, below.

It's true that for now, Android is still behind RIM and Apple, but given Android's steep growth curve, I expect that it will eventually become the dominant smartphone operating system. Windows will likely continue to languish.

Microsoft has also been floundering in the tablet market, shutting down its Courier tablet project, for example. And HP's cancellation of its Slate, which was to be based on Windows 7, was another blow as well.

Meanwhile, Android has begun to gain popularity as a tablet OS. Cisco, among others, is developing an Android-based tablet.

It's not at all clear whether Android tablets in total will outsell the iPad, but don't be surprised if they give the iPad a run for the money, especially because many of them will likely be specialized devices rather than all-purpose ones.

There's an even bigger area where Linux may dominate, but Windows will fear to tread -- embedded in the millions of smart devices and appliances that will eventually flood the market. Yes, I know, people have been talking about smart appliances for years, and they haven't yet turned up in force. But they will, because of the shrinking cost of sensors and hardware, and the increasing ubiquity of the Internet.

One perfect example is the Smart Grid, which will require millions of smart devices, in homes and businesses, as well along the energy grid itself and in electric generation plants.

Lightweight Linux is ideal for those devices; heavyweight Windows is not. Cisco, for example, has recently released the Cisco Home Energy Controller, which runs Ubuntu Linux for MID.

In the long run, smartphones, tablets, and countless gadgets, gizmos, and appliances will run some variant of Linux. Windows will remain largely a desktop and server operating system. And so more people will end up running Linux than running Windows.