iPhone 4 demand explodes, BlackBerry ain't sexy

Despite its problems, Apple's iPhone 4 has hit the ground running, with huge numbers of consumers planning to grab themselves an iPhone.

Has Apple's iPhone defined the smartphone market? Not entirely, but it leads the pack, the latest Changewave survey confirms.

Meanwhile, millions of incredibly satisfied existing users are giving iPhone the much-coveted pester power that guarantees success in the consumer market.

This isn't just me talking -- I've just recently emerged from an intensive briefing with Paul Carton, who presented us with ChangeWave's latest Consumer Smart Phone survey, which shows an "explosive transformation" in consumer demand.

Essentially, this transformation is characterized by more smartphone sales than ever, meaning the market is expanding rapidly. Apple holds a huge hunk of thus expanding market, followed by the growing Android army.

Everyone else is dust, at least for the present.

Has BlackBerry lost its sexiness?

Apple and Android are seizing marketshare from all sides. RIM is particularly impacted, with consumers less likely to purchase a BlackBerry than ever before.

Those that do purchase one feel less satisfied with the features of their device than ever before -- despite that these features remain the ones which made BlackBerry great in the first place.

Speaking during a fossil-fuel saving Web press conference, Carton said,

"First the Apple iPhone: We see a huge leap in demand going forward, with 52 per cent of those planning to buy a smartphone intending to purchase an iPhone in the next 90 days -- up from 31 per cent last year."

Pity RIM:

Just 6 per cent of those planning to purchase a smartphone in the next 90-days intends purchasing a BlackBerry. The Android-powered HTC smartphone category sees 19 per cent interest.

Carton compared the iPhone to the movie, Avatar. When that movie was released ticket sales of all the others suffered, "it sucked the oxygen out the room, " he said.

Same again now, for Apple, with the iPhone 4 seemingly set to seize 52 per cent of smartphone sales in the next ninety days, "An amazing thing when you consider the size of the growing market," Carton said.

The consumer research expert concedes that the current analysis doesn't reflect current concerns at the iPhone 4 antenna story, but promised his company will be researching the impact of this in a future survey.

In a dog eat dog world, Android eats Android

Google's multiple Android partner survey shows something interesting. While partners use the same basic OS, they must still combat each other for device sales.

This pits Motorola squarely up against HTC -- HTC's latest Android-powered Incredible smartphone has the edge right now, but with another version of the Motorola Droid set to ship soon, the battle for second and third place devices promises to heat up.

Keeping customers happy is an art form, and Apple's devices dominate the satisfaction stats still, "Consumers buy smartphones to be very satisfied, not slightly satisfied," said Carton.

But an Apple satisfies

Apple execs must surely take heart from the 73 per cent satisfaction rating Changewave sees consumers have in the iPhone.

This is far higher than anyone else, though behind once again come HTC and Motorola, with Palm at 34 per cent.

Note that Changewave surveys have seen Apple's iPhone users consistently kept satisfied, at levels of above 70 per cent since July 2007.

In context, RIM has managed to fall from a high of 55 percent in January 2008, to just 30 percent in June. Apple is eating the former smartphone leader.

It constitutes, "Quite a dramatic fall from grace for RIM over this time," said Carton.

Can RIM shape up?

The market situation for RIM is much more challenging - few people plan to buy one and users are less satisfied than before.

"Longer term, RIM models appear to have lost their cool factor and it is up to RIM to regain consumer confidence that they do have that special thing which used to separate BlackBerry from everyone else," he said.

In terms of mobile OS preferences, it is advantage Apple once again, with an astonishing 50 per cent of consumers opting for iOS.

Apple cannot become complacent. Android achieved a 30 per cent share in terms of mobile OS preference, a very strong result when faced with Apple's glitzy iPhone 4 and iOS 4 launch.

When it comes to mobile OS satisfaction, Apple dominates: 56 percent of users are very likely to install iOS 4, while 18 percent are somewhat likely.

Elsewhere, Windows Mobile and webOS usage continues to dwindle away into insignificance.

Apple's precious iPhone, iPad halo

Apple is also set to benefit from a halo effect as iPhone customers rush to its online or high street retail properties to purchase their new device.

Many more people than this time last year (when the iPhone 3GS was introduced) intend purchasing their iPhone 4 from an Apple retail or online store: 17 per cent this season as opposed to 8 per cent before.

This huge influx of traffic -- particularly so soon after the huge influx of traffic generated by the iPad launch -- is bound to translate into yet more strong sales across the rest of the Apple product line, including the Mac.

Carton notes that the scale of the move to Apple retail is hugely significant, noting that consumer point-of-purchase patterns usually only change at a "glacial" rate.

One final trick for market dominance

The big money?

Apple really is missing a chance by continuing its exclusive relationship with AT&T.

Carton confirmed that, in his analysis, "close to half" of non-AT&T consumers in the US would be interested in purchasing an iPhone if it were to be available on their carrier.

The survey was conducted mainly in the US across 4,028 respondents between June 14-24, 2010.

All images used c/o Changewave.