Apple iPhone 4 on T-Mobile, not Verizon next? (and run pun)

By Richi Jennings. July 22, 2010.

The rumor-mill has been running overtime: which carrier is going be next to offer the Apple iPhone 4? Once AT&T's exclusivity period expires, could it be T-Mobile, not Verizon Wireless? Could it be both? In IT Blogwatch, bloggers read the runes.

Your humble blogwatcher selected these bloggy morsels for your enjoyment. Not to mention running with scissors...
(DTLSF) (ETR:DTE) (VZ) (VOD) (AAPL)
 
 
Leander Kahney claims an exclusive:

Talks between Apple and T-Mobile are at an advanced stage ... according to a highly placed source at the wireless company ... it’s 80 percent likely that the iPhone will be coming to T-Mobile in Q3. ... Apple’s exclusive contract with AT&T is reportedly ending this year. ... Overseas, Apple has routinely added extra carriers when exclusivity deals ... expire.
...
Verizon’s network is based on incompatible CDMA technology. ... it would be a lot simpler for Apple to go with T-Mobile, even though the carrier has a third of the customers of Verizon. ...  Indeed, many T-Mobile customers already use unlocked iPhones on the company’s network.

MG Siegler drives the point home:

All that said, this is an interesting idea for one reason: T-Mobile, like AT&T, is a GSM network. ... To work on Verizon’s network, the iPhone would have to be gutted to make room for a new CDMA chip. ... More troublesome than it would be to produce another variety of GSM iPhone.
...
Of course you should take this report with a grain of salt. ... Even the source doesn’t think it’s a slam dunk ... says it’s about “80 percent likely.” ... You also can never discount the possibility of different agendas at work. ... Anyone from T-Mobile to Apple [could be] circulating this story around as a bargaining tactic.

But Ben Patterson's in two minds:

Going the T-Mobile way would have drawbacks. With just 34 million subscribers, the carrier is the smallest of the "big four" ... Verizon Wireless has 93 million subscribers. ... T-Mobile is justly proud of its speedy new HSPA+ data network, [but] it simply doesn’t have the 3G footprint that Verizon has.
...
Making the jump to ... T-Mobile would [also] be a far simpler move ... strategically, given Verizon’s increasingly cozy relationship with Google. ... [But could] the iPhone ... even support T-Mobile’s 3G network, which runs on the 1700 and 2100 MHz bands? ... If not ... it would be relatively easy for Apple to serve up a tweaked iPhone that does the trick.

Jay Yarow sets the wayback machine:

This isn't the first time T-Mobile's name has come up. ... T-Mobile said earlier this year that it wanted the iPhone before the end of 2010. Analyst Shawn Wu also threw out the iPhone to T-Mobile connection in December.
...
If the iPhone does come to T-Mobile ... there's no reason to think this would preclude Verizon from getting the phone. ... It makes sense for Apple to start selling the phone everywhere.

But tmoled has his or her own percentage:

If the deal is 80% sure to happen at all at this point, how do they expect to release the phone in 2 months? ... [Apple] did a fantastic job with the [iPhone 4] case this time around, it looks great, very elegant and expensive looking. I would love for this rumor to be true, but I’m only 20% convinced.

Similarly, Evan Selleck waxes dubious:

Why aren’t we hearing something more official if it’s supposed to launch in the third quarter? That ends this September ... right around the corner.

 
And Finally...
Running with scissors
 
 
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Richi Jennings is an independent analyst/consultant, specializing in blogging, email, and security. A cross-functional IT geek since 1985, you can follow him as @richi on Twitter, pretend to be richij's friend on Facebook, or just use good old email: itbw@richij.com.

You can also read Richi's full profile and disclosure of his industry affiliations.