Is Microsoft stock suffering from a "Ballmer discount"?
- TAGS:earnings, Microsoft, Steve Ballmer
- IT TOPICS:Applications, Desktop Apps, E-Business, Enterprise Apps, Internet, Mobile Apps, Operating Systems, Web Apps, Windows
Microsoft reported record revenue in the fourth quarter, plus a big jump in profits. But no matter the reaction of the stock market to the results, there are those within Microsoft who believe the company's stock price is being held down by Steve Ballmer's poor stewardship --- that the stock suffers from what they call the "Ballmer discount." And there's evidence that for the first time, a coterie of Microsoft insiders would like to see Ballmer go.
The news was certainly good for Microsoft in the fourth quarter. Its revenue was $16.04 billion, a 22% increase over the fourth quarter last year. And it had a net income of $5.93 billion --- a very pretty profit, and an increase of 49% compared to a year ago.
There were those --- including me --- who thought that Apple's revenue would surpass Microsoft's for the first time. They (and me) were wrong: Apple's revenue in the fourth quarter was $15.7 billion.
So what is there to complain about? Plenty, according to a report in the Daily Beast, which reports that:
there is growing resentment among a faction of certain executives inside the company who blame Ballmer for the years-long stagnation in Microsoft's stock price. Their argument, according to these sources, is that Microsoft's overall financial performance has been solid…But instead of a steadily rising stock price, Microsoft shares have fluctuated wildly over the last few years, seemingly unable to break out of the mid-$20s for any significant length of time.
The article goes on to say:
Sources say the talk around Microsoft's Redmond, Washington, headquarters -- which has grown increasingly louder ever since Apple surpassed Microsoft in market capitalization -- is that the company's stock suffers from a "Ballmer discount," and that the CEO is on the clock to significantly move the needle on its share price over the next two or three quarters or face a potential move to oust him."Ballmer is on the list of mega-executives under pressure," says a banker who has negotiated deals for Microsoft. "If he was asked to leave the building, I suspect there would be more happy than unhappy people."
The complaints, according to the article, are familiar by now to Microsoft watchers. Microsoft has fallen behind the competition in every important growth market. The Kin disaster hurt Microsoft in the mobile market, where Microsoft is already well behind Apple and Android. Microsoft continues to be dominated by Google in search. The Zune isn't even a blip in the market compared to the iPod. Microsoft doesn't have a pad like the iPad. Microsoft's revenue is dependent on Windows, Office and similar backwards-facing revenue sources, not ones with big growth potential.
There are also those who don't appreciate Ballmer's style, which some call overly confrontational and autocratic.
Still, despite all that, I don't see Ballmer going anytime soon. He enjoys the support of the Microsoft board, and there's no clear number two in sight. For better or worse, Ballmer appears to be heading Microsoft for the long haul.
I think Microsoft would be better with more visionary leadership, other than Ballmer. But I don't expect a palace coup any time soon. And Ballmer isn't the type to go on his own volition. So for those who aren't his fans: You'll still have Steve Ballmer to kick around for probably a long while.
