Apple wins Superbowl with Verizon iPhone

Apple's move to support Verizon with the iPhone has all the hallmarks of the Packer's win at Superbowl this season, despite Motorola's attempt to cash-in on the legend with its $799 Xoom ad: That's because, like the Packers, Apple has the mind-share and professionalism it takes to roll with the punches and to capitalize almost as well as the Packers turned turnovers into points this season.

What's up? Despite all the hype, Android is about to feel the heat, with stats claiming 44 percent of Android users on Verizon will dump their existing devices in favor of an Apple handset -- some as soon as Feb. 10 when the device hits retail. Perhaps this is why Verizon has seen a quarter of a million iPhone pre-orders made in the few hours the device was made available for presale.

Dan Mead, president and CEO of Verizon Wireless, said: "In just our first two hours, we had already sold more phones than any first day launch in our history. And, when you consider these initial orders were placed between the hours of 3am and 5am, it is an incredible success story."

Conversion one

Now, I realize there's "lies, damned lies, and statistics", so take uSamps conclusions (PDF) based on its survey of just 727 AT&T and Verizon owners with a pinch of salt. However, as an illustration of market momentum, it could tell us to expect some Android handsets to take a ride to landfill all over the US of A.

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Expect long lines when the device goes on sale later this week: "Two-thirds of Verizon’s Blackberry users (66 percent) report they are very or somewhat likely to switch to the iPhone [on launch day], as are nearly half of its Android users (44 percent)," the survey claims. Very bad news for RIM -- 66 percent of Blackberry owners are likely (32 percent) or somewhat likely (34 percent) to switch on day one.

The bad news for AT&T is that 26 percent of its iPhone customers will switch to Verizon's iPhone, according to the survey. Frustration over dropped calls is the biggest reason for this. That's a worse result than that promised in a ChangeWave survey earlier this year, which warned that 16 percent of users would switch to Verizon if they began to offer an iPhone.

In an attempt to shore up its existing customer base, AT&T this weekend published an ad (above) extolling the virtue of being able to "talk and surf at the same time" on your iPhone using its network. This feature isn't available on Verizon's CDMA network at this time -- so that carrier has fought back with its own ad, "it just works" (below), answering AT&T's weak point. The Superbowl showing of Verizon's ad would likely have been a little more effective if the ad's audio track had actually "worked".

Reports so far suggest Verizon is taking its "it just works" mantra extremely seriously -- those pre-ordering the device have seen the ordering system stand up to the strain. As we all know, AT&T's systems have previously crumbled under the load.

Which of the two networks works best? Recent tests have shown us that Verizon's network consistently outperforms that of AT&T.

Conversion two

Despite the iCasualties, AT&T's move to demand a $350 early contract termination fee will hold some users back from moving to the Verizon iPhone.

We're going to see the obligatory queues outside of Verizon's and Apple's retail stores as committed geeks reach out to get hold of one of the first shipping iPhones. Apple will open its stores three hours early to meet demand and Verizon has canceled all but essential staff leave in an attempt to cope with the anticipated rush.

Verizon is anticipated to sell 11 million iPhones this year; with the addition of a similar number of iPhones via AT&T and the anticipated introduction of the device on China's gigantic China Mobile CDMA network, Apple's iPhone marketshare will grow exponentially this year.

By the numbers

In related news the white iPhone is appearing within ordering systems for major retailers (including Best Buy and AT&T) worldwide, suggesting the introduction of that Apple unicorn is now mere weeks away. I expect the device to debut in March.

Open to question is whether all these attempts will be sufficient to propel Apple's share of general smartphone industry growth. If you take each vendors increase in units and divide this by the overall market’s increase you see that Apple's share of growth has fallen from 25 percent in Q1 2010 to 19 percent in Q4 2010 (source Asymco).

As these images show, Samsung's growth went from 2 percent to 26 percent in the period and HTC saw a shift from 5 percent to 14 percent in the time. Nokia suffered the most -- 39 percent became 19 percent. Visit Asymco for the full information.

More than this

Apple isn't solely reliant on the Verizon iPhone, nor is it dependent on a success for the white model. It will drive future growth with the introduction of the iPhone 5 later this year. To make this a huge success, what can Apple do to boost its USP? Here's three guesses.

• Buy an iPhone 5, get three months free access to the iTunes 'all you can eat' streaming music and video service (Wi-Fi only). All your music everywhere.
• Sign-up for iTunes payments systems and use your device to pay for goods at participating outlets worldwide: Starbucks, for example.
• Retina Graphics: "The new iPhone 5 has the fantastic Retina Display of the iPhone 4, but we've added something new, we call this 'Retina Graphics', harnessing the power of the multi-core A5 processors and the multi-core graphics chip, video, games and any kind of moving image will be smoother, clearer and faster than before. You can even watch 3D TV," Apple's VP Worldwide Marketing Phil Schiller might even say.

Will you be getting a Verizon iPhone? Will you choose a white model?Are you waiting for the iPhone 5? What do you think on the Android v. iOS power struggle, and can a Nokia/Microsoft alliance unseat the industry? Please let me know in comments below, and I'd be most pleased if you chose to follow me on Twitter so I could let you know as new reports get published here first on Computerworld.