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Preston Gralla

Seeing Through Windows

Windows Phone to beat iPhone, become number 2 smartphone platform, says analyst

Windows Phone may today have less than a two percent market share, but analysts at IHS say it will knock the iPhone from its number two perch in smartphones by 2015, jumping to 16.7% market share, squeaking by iOS at 16.6% and well behind Android's 58.1%.

The analysts cite several reasons for this, including the Nokia's plans to sell the Nokia 900 Windows Phone in North America via Microsoft's business channels. Nokia sees Windows Phone as the key to its revival. Computerworld quotes IHS analyst Francis Sideco as saying:

"The introduction of the Lumia 900 shows that Nokia believes the road back to smartphone dominance runs through North America. And the way to win North America is through its operator channels."

IHS also says that Nokia will help grow the Windows Phone market by luring app developers to write for the platform.

It's hard to know how seriously to take IHS. Can they really accurately project that Windows Phone will beat iOS by one-tenth of a percentage point by 2015? Of course not. I would guess that they slightly cooked the numbers to show that Windows Phone will surpass iOS because they know it will get more headlines than if it remained at number 3.

Still the matter of a tenth of a percentage point, or even a few percentage points, is a minor detail. The real news here is that if analysts are to be believed, Windows Phone has plenty of life left in it.

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