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AT&T predicted the future. Can Microsoft?

The past century was filled with optimistic predictions of how quickly technology would progress. Flying cars? Moon colonies? Robotic servants to free humanity of day-to-day drudgery? None of that's happened yet, much to our ancestors' chagrin. But for all those, there have been a few glimpses into the future that proved remarkably accurate — and surprisingly, they came not from IT visionaries, but from advertising firms.

Fellow blogger Mark Hall previously looked at 1967's prediction of online shopping in 1999. Except for its chauvinism, today's e-commerce is not much different. More recently, AT&T made a series of commercials in 1993 which, despite being less than two decades past, is practically the Dark Ages compared to where we are today. (Recall that the World Wide Web was only four years old at the time.) Some technologies seen in the video , such as electronic toll collection services, were available even then; others are here today; a few still have not yet surfaced. It's otherwise a remarkably realistic look at where we would be and now are:


If an electronics company of the nineties can accurately predict life a decade later, will the same be true of today's looks at life a decade hence? That's what Microsoft is hoping with its look at the ubiquitousness of IT in 2019:


With the current state of the economy, it's hard to believe there will be anyone left in IT to develop these technologies. And even if we can introduce these devices into our lives — will it really make us happier? Or is it just another ad firm trying to sell us on our need for their client's products?

For economic or scientific reasons, where do you see technology taking our culture? In the directions AT&T and Microsoft predict, or elsewhere? Let's hear your thoughts.

What People Are Saying

UI Improvements

Yeah, the Microsoft 2019 seems a lot like extrapolation of the iPhone user interface (like pinching the screen to shrink), and the Apple Knowledge Navigator video from the 80's.

Acutally, I think AT&T's

Acutally, I think AT&T's adds DIDN'T come true. Sure All the things they stated DID come true, Just the majority of them weren't brought to us by AT&T.

Yes, exactly the point: AT&T

Yes, exactly the point: AT&T did not bring it to you. google, cisco, akamai, aol (really!) and apple brought it to you. I was at AT&T Bell Labs and then AT&T Labs at the time the "You Will" campaign was rolled out. (The AT&T Bell Labs organizations split, with the organizations more closely aligned with services forming AT&T Labs and the organizations aligned with products forming Lucent's Bell Labs.) My organizations at AT&T developed the technologies, and successfully. As a result we have patents and publications, and a few awards. What we didn't do was bring the technologies to the marketplace. The companies that did that changed the world.

"You Will" but ATT Didn't Bring It

@Jim: Good point; I was thinking the same thing about ATT even actually inhibiting what was shown on that 1993 commerical.

I actually remember seeing those back then on TV, and thought about how cool it will be when they come to fruition.

Yes, ATT Bell Labs was a legendary R&D group -- funded by ATT's monopoly profits, but I'm not sure what non-PBX types of innovations they actually brought to market (maybe, Unix and their mini-computers, fiber optics). And note that they were spun-off as Lucent Technologies; then bought by Alcatel. (I think Carly Fiorina was no. 2 at Lucent.)

(OK, I just checked and they did some mammoth things, but not on the consumer side, until they were split up.)

Also, consumer phone innovation didn't start until AFTER ATT was sued, to allow decoupling of rental-only home phones.

As for the Microsoft commercial, it's just image branding. Anyone remember Bill Gates' "The Road Ahead" written in 1996? Did you see him writing any other prediction books after badly missing on that one?

Did you see MS today release a tiny music player without a display, that speaks to you? Oh, that's another innovative company.

Keep in mind that the AT&T

Keep in mind that the AT&T of 1993 was an entirely different company than the one of today.

Today's AT&T is a product of a convoluted history of Baby Bells merging and buying the remnants of a failing Ma Bell - the very company that they originated from.

Today's AT&T is, for the most part, just a big wired and wireless network carrier and backbone provider.

The AT&T of 1993 was a wired and wireless carrier, a long distance call provider (a what??), a computer manufacturer, a device manufacturer, a backbone provider, and operating system developer, voice mail & pbx and desktop phone designer, ATM machine manufacturer (I think... through NCR?).

Most importantly, and most relevant to these commercials, was the existence of Bell Labs. It's difficult to estimate how much of our modern computing and telecommunications technology emerged from Bell Labs. So while AT&T may not have been the sole developers of the technologies showcased here, it is reasonable to believe that in some significant way they contributed to the research or partnerships that made these a reality.

re: bell labs

I could be wrong, but didn't bell labs become Lucent, which is now part of Alcatel?

...And it still is a

...And it still is a backbone provider. Otherwise how would smaller companies use T1/DSL/Opt-e-Man if att doesn't do them? It more or less(or completely I don't have the time to dig up the facts) still has control over all of the land lines across the entire country, which obviously means they also have control over dsl...

Like it or not without the original Bell we wouldn't even have the basic phone services that people take for granted today.

No, I'm not an att employee, if this seems like a plug for them.

MS predictions

Most of the Microsoft ones are more about changes in software UI than devices. Sure their were the ones with the hand-held where the rest components shrank so the entire device so every component would be hidden behind the screen. Their are concept phones that already do the two screens folding to one large one. The augmented reality device was the only one that isn't already where a current device with trends moving to. However I do see a problem with a few of the user interfaces they show, they are designs that look good on camera but would be terrible to try to do anything with.

Flying cars didn't happen?

You need a subscription to TED talks - nice video there from the guy who's been designing flying cars since 1960's and is capable of production. 4 rotary engines and estimated costs at around 100 thousand dollars for one car.

Just waiting for infrastructure.

They're there, not here

Thanks! I hadn't seen that particular TED Talk, though Computerworld did cover something similar less than two months ago.

At $100,000 each, I think we're waiting for more than just the infrastructure to support widespread adoption. There are several factors keeping us a long way from having affordable flying cars in everyone's driveway.

(And dare I ask, in this energy-sensitive world, what kind of mileage do these machines get?)

-Ken