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Mike Elgan's picture
Mike Elgan

The World Is My Office

Chatter about Amazon's Kindle reveals nothing

MYKONOS, GREECE -- Everyone's talking about Amazon Kindle sales -- everyone except Amazon, that is. Sure, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos' mouth is moving. He just isn't saying anything. Bezos said at the Wall Street Journal's All Things Digital conference this week that "There will be a second version, a third version, a tenth version" (presumably there won't be fourth through ninth versions).

Very informative, Jeff! He made a point of saying that the second version won't come out anytime soon (CEO-speak for "keep buying the first version, people."). Amazon recently dropped the price of the Kindle by 10 percent, and picked up the cost of two-day shipping. One theory (mine, actually) is that they may want to clear out their new-found inventory to make way for a badly needed second version, despite Bezos' comments to the contrary.

Bezos also gave a percentage associated with e-Book sales: 6 percent. That's the percentage of sales that were electronic among the 125,000 titles available in both print and electronic formats. (I'd be more interested in relative profit margins for both publishers and Amazon.com, but I'm quite sure that information won't be coming out anytime soon.)

Back in March, I ripped into Amazon for hiding its unit sales numbers -- how many Kindles it has sold. Since then, analysts are coming out of the woodwork to hawk their own guestimates. CitiGroup analyst Mark Mahaney estimates that Amazon sold between 10,000 and 30,000 e-readers during Q1. Goldman's James Mitchell thinks the company sold between 25,000 and 50,000 during the same quarter.

In other words, we still have no idea how many Kindles Amazon has sold.

Mahaney also predicts that the Kindle will earn Amazon some three-quarters of a billion dollars within two years -- about 3 percent of Amazon's business. That's not in Kindle sales, but combined Kindle and e-Book sales, as well as newspaper, magazine and blog subscriptions.

With all this chatter about Kindle numbers, the fact remains that it's all pure speculation, hype and bull$#@! We still don't have a clue how the Kindle is doing, how lucrative it is for publishers or Amazon -- or if it's clobbering the competition or not.

I wish Amazon would just come clean and tell us how this thing is doing.

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What People Are Saying

I think that the CEO doesn't

I think that the CEO doesn't know what's going on with the device and is floundering like a desperate man at a poker table trying to get his opponent to reveal his hand without giving away his own...

I'm going to get a Kindle for my wife as soon as the next version arrives.

Cheap shot

I am not a Kindle owner, and probably will refuse the temptation to get the gadget for another several years, despite the fact that I am an avid reader. Nevertheless, I have to say that Elgan's remark about there not being a fourth through ninth version was a pretty cheap shot. I didn't really find anything else he said in his article to be all that newsworthy, either. I encourage a thumbs-down rating for this non-article.

Cheap shot?

The comment was in context of the fact that Bezos consistently tries to have it both ways -- he works hard to create the general impression that the Kindle is a runaway success, beating the competition, worthy of investment, etc., without every giving even the slightest hint about how many Kindles Amazon has actually sold.

Do you suggest that we all just passively accept every nugget of self-serving and vague propaganda that every CEO -- or every politician, for that matter -- spoon feeds us, or do we demand real facts?

It's the roll of the press (and, in this case, a blogger) to call Bezos out on this shameless activity.

Bezos going on and on about how many future versions is pure fluff -- just so much stalling so he doesn't have to mention the elephant in the living room, which is the fact that Amazon is leaving everyone in the dark about Kindle unit sales.

Mike Elgan

Kindle isn't for me.....

even though I already have had a rather large collection of e-books for quite some time. However, mine are on my HTC smart phone (AKA AT&T Tilt) from either eBooks or Mobipocket as well as periodicals from other sources should I desire them. There are more than enough titles on those two services to keep me reading for any future I can see.

While perhaps not as pleasant to read as the larger e-ink display devices, I find the smart phone to be quite readable AND I don't have to find space in an already full travel bag for ANOTHER (fairly large) device. Further, while the e-ink devices typically have better battery life than my smart phone, I just carry a second battery for those 12 hour flights on airlines with no seat power. So far, I've had enough battery life for any amount of reading I care to do on such flights and still have enough left over to call my wife when I land.

I had looked at all the readers about a year ago and, while nice, I decided against all of them. The negating criteria was the physical size coupled with the fact that most are tied to a single content source. Price was another factor. Given that I could comfortably read on a device I already had purchased for other reasons, I saw little reason to spend more money on another device.

There is increasing talk (including articles here on computerworld.com) of combining more and more function into a device we're all carrying anyway and this seems to be another logical extension.

In my humble opinion, devices like Kindle and the Sony e-book are nice but the closed nature of them with a single provider source available may well be their doom. It seems to me that eBooks and Mobipocket (and other similar vendors) may have the right model; lots of titles at a great price and support a wide variety of devices for their specific reader software.