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John Brandon's picture
John Brandon

Web 2.0 Watcher

Google Chrome = Dead, Google Search = Hot

Last week, Computerworld reported that Chrome's market share has slipped again - now fighting for a fourth spot with the Opera browser. That means IE, Firefox, and Safari are trudging on the fledgling Google browser, which has just a .7 market share, according to Net Applications. I think the browser has now almost become inconsequential, a bright blip that has faded faster than my summer tan.

But was there really any hope? I wrote about all of the challenges facing Chrome recently, but I think the biggest challenge by far is compatibility. Web developers know that you had better make sure your site works with IE, and it probably better work with Firefox. Adding another one to the list is a losing proposition - how many more hours of coding should they do for a browser with a .7 market share? I understand WC3 support, but in the open market of Web browsers, it's about more than just standards. The fact is, anytime a user tries to fire up Cinemanow.com and finds that Chrome doesn't work, it's like a stop sign on the Internet - it makes the average surfer wonder: why am I using Chrome at all? It leaves an indelible impression on them and they eventually switch back.

It's time for a post-mortem. For one thing, Google is known primarily as a search giant. People don't equate search with the browser platform. A browser is the shell for Web sites, but they don't wake up in the morning and think, man, I really need to get a new browser so I can search the Internet better. No, they go to Google.com and start typing. And, they do this many multiple times per day, all year long.

I noticed that, last week, when Google released an updated to their Blog search engine, that it started working right out of the box. I now use it just as much as Techmeme and Technorati. My own blog posts, such as this one last week about Sarah Palin, showed up in the search listing at Google Blog Search just a hair faster than other blog search tools. Google knows how to do search, they have the best algorithms in the business. This is a market they can dominate. (By the way, does anyone remember Cuil? It's funny: former Google employees taking on Google in the market where they are way more dominant than Microsoft. Brilliant.)

Chrome was intended (notice I am speaking in the past tense) as a kind of operating system for the future Web. I think it made a huge splash, but not as big as Google wanted. I don't think the engineers, let alone the co-founders, were sitting in a conference room saying, I sure hope we have a .7 market share in October! The company is not known for thinking small. They want to own the smartphone market, not just become a bit player that fawns at the feet of the iPhone.

So, what's next for Chrome? I think it's destined to become a developer platform, a tool that coders use to test speed benchmarks against the "real" browsers, just for fun. IE and Firefox are never going to clear the path for Chrome, at least not this year, or next. My prediction: by early next year, Google may even pull the plug on Chrome and say, sorry - we agree that Chrome was kind of lame.


Google Chrome Browser

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What People Are Saying

Is there a Darwin award for Blogs?

yours may may win an honorable mention if there is..
It looks as though google is going final on Chrome.

http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/955/1049955/google-defies-history-releases-product

Really terrible entry. Hopefully the quality of the rest of your work isn't as shoddy. My time isn't worth the investigation...

I'm keeping Chrome

Chrome has replaced FireFox and IE on all my computers as the Default Browser. IE and FireFox tend to eat up a lot of CPU and are the biggest reason for me having to reboot my computer next to Windows Update. I have found a few things that I still have to use IE for that Chrome doesn't seem to support yet but it is only a beta release so that's the way it is.

Very, very bad article.

I wonder if Apple/Microsoft/et al are paying this guy to spread FUD. Web browsers are the kind of software people use often and take for granted, it breeds familarity, they get stuck in habits and won't change to an alternative easily. Firefox (Firebird before that, and Pheonix before that) is a an obvious example of this, it took years before it ever broke 1%, and although I don't have proof, I would guess it's now the most commonplace browser among the computer literate and IE's share only remains as high as it does due to business and the sort of "grandma" demographic of computer users, that will never use any software other than what was preloaded with their Dell.

With this in mind Chrome's marketshare is predictable and indicitive of nothing at this point, regardless of your opinion towards it. Obviously when it was announced there would be a slight spike as people try it, then a drop off when many, if not most return to their previous browser due to aforementioned lack of familiarity, or a lack of a feature they were used to. This might well change over the years as Chrome matures out of beta status, and if and when more features are added.

This is simply unbiased fact for the most part. On a personal note I think Chrome has some very significant innovations over current browsers, resulting in improvements in speed and reliability, two issues with the web at present which are hindering the uptake of web aps. "Cloud computing" is of major importance to Google, their business is advertising, not software development; with Chrome, Google are most likely trying to speed the development of an environment where server side software becomes a viable alternative to traditional client side applications - something Microsoft in particular will be very reluctant to encourage - which could mean massive increases in revenue with the web dominating even more of our computing experience.

Another failing of this article, none of the hyperbole about Chrome being a replacement for traditional OSes came from Google, it was hype from the blogosphere and tech media, and although it is a long term possibility if cloud computing really does take off, it's not the primary reason Chrome was developed. Overall this column came across as lazy and badly thought out, having an axe to grind, and trying to be sensationalist at the expense of logic and facts.

PS

Oh, and of course, as previous commentators have mentioned Chrome uses Webkit so there's no additional testing required on the part of web developers provided they were already testing for compatability with Safari. And the W3C and WaSP have made inroads with setting standards for markup and browsers respectively, meaning code written to proper standards will display as intended on rendering engines that are also coded to standards (e.g. passing the Acid3 test). Meaning there shouldn't be increasingly little reason to insert hacks or any changed on code due to the variety of browsers - the only broswer that really offers a problem in this area is IE, which obviously has far too great a market share to simply ignore, although even IE is improving in this respect too.

I'm shocked this column's author wasn't aware of all this, or just chose to ignore facts so he could write an inflammatory piece.

Yeah you really are an

Yeah you really are an idiot. A .7% market share in the browser's first month? That's tremendous. Not to mention Google was forced to release the browser early because of a leak. Get your facts straight.

As a web developer, I think

As a web developer, I think is Chrome is great and the only reason it has not caught on more yet is because the lack of knowledge about. Very few people even know it exists.

Sorry But I really do think this article is horrible.

Chrome's release appeared to

Chrome's release appeared to be precisely timed to foreshadow the release of the G1 phone. Any commentary of the doom Chrome before the end of the holiday season seems premature. Chrome and the G1 will certainly not dominate their respective markets, but they do stand a chance to create a niche market of their own, and the cross pollination between third party developers for the android platform (if they materialize) and the chrome development team and any subsequent user base response will be the final indicator of whether or not Chrome will be around for a while.

Chrome: Missing Something

I use Chrome and love it. When released it was available through Google.com and regional Google's - *as an obvious link* - so no search for the product was needed. This was only done initially - I'd guess for testing purposes. The Phoenix will rise again. It's lack of take-up was simply because now a distinct search is needed. When out of it's initial beta - it'll be back.
Reports of it's death are greatly exaggerated.

Software

I guess I have to wonder: is that how software works? I mean, when Adobe releases CS4 eventually, are they hoping that there is a lot of media attention at first and then it drops off to where only 1% of the graphics software user base are buying it? I think they want it to be a hit at first and stay a hit for years to come.

Chrome

Google's Chrome is based off of the open source browser WebKit, which is also what Apple's Safari is based off of. Safari is also on the iPhone, which by far has the highest browser use of any mobile browser or mobile device. Also, I believe I read that WebKit scores 100% on the Acid3 test and is the first browser to do so. Web developers who develop based on the Acid3 standards will have no problem with Safari or Chrome, and Firefox and IE should be able to present these pages the same as well. Compatibility shouldn't be an issue at all. And even though people currently use one type of browser (IE or Firefox) I'm willing to bet money that they would switch in a heartbeat if something else came along that offered a simpler interface with easier to use features and had more functionality.