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Desktop Linux tidal wave alert

In 2009, more Linux-powered desktops will sell than will Windows-powered ones. Sounds crazy doesn't it? Think again.

What's happened is that people don't just want; they're demanding that their computers boot-up Right Now. Vendors aren't fools, so they're delivering laptops and desktops that can boot-up really fast.

Of course, while most of the vendors would like to give their customers Windows, they can't. Windows is no more capable than booting fast than John McCain is of winning the Olympic gold in the 100-meter dash. That's where Linux comes in.

You see you can boot Linux up in a hurry if you do it from the hardware and thanks to a company called deviceVM and its fast-booting Linux, SplashTop. PC OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) like ASUS, Dell, HP and Lenovo, are all including SplashTop on their lines.

SplashTop, which can boot from either the firmware or the hard drive, is a lightweight modern Linux. The package includes a simple graphical desktop, Blackbox and a selection of popular network-aware applications. These include a Web browser, which is based on Firefox; Skype VoIP (voice over Internet Protocol); and an IM (instant message client).

While you can't access the hard-drive with this fast-boot operating system, you can use your network and play DVDs or CDs. Once you've booted into SplashTop, depending on how the vendor has it set up, you can either choose to continue to boot into the system's main operating system or the main system will boot up in the background.

While the bulk of Linux desktops are going to come from vendors who are adopting SplashTop or similar 'instant-on Linuxes,' the hardware OEMs are also adopting desktop Linux in its own right. Lenovo, after turning away from Novell SUSE Linux on its ThinkPad line is back in the game. Now, Lenovo is shipping its new IdeaPad S10e netbook with SLED (SUSE Linux Enterprise Desktop).

HP, after resisting the temptation to ship a laptop with Linux for ages, will finally be shipping Linux as a standard option in December on the HP Mini 1000 with MIE. The MIE (Mobile Internet Experience) is actually the name of HP's home-grown version of Ubuntu for its netbooks.

In the meantime, Dell is continuing to lead the mainstream adoption of the Linux desktop. Its most recent Linux-enabled laptop, the Inspiron Mini 9 with Ubuntu 8.04 is especially attractive. Other vendors, like Asus with its Eee lines, are also quickly moving into shipping Linux on their mini-notebooks.

Quietly, without many people noticing, the Linux desktop has become the mainstream. Now, with the arrival of new, exciting Linux distributions like Ubuntu 8.10, users' demand for a quick boot-up operating system, and Microsoft's Vista failure, Linux may actually be on more new systems next year than Windows will be. If Microsoft takes too long in delivering Windows 7, its emergency Vista fix-up, who knows? By 2010, maybe most new PC users will be using Linux instead of Windows. The desktop Linux tidal wave may indeed be on its way.

What People Are Saying

A return to the C64 days ????

The way I see it is that Vic 20's, Commodore 16,64,128 and many other computers of the 80's have built in BIOS. We are simply returning back that concept. People are increasingly wanting instant gratification, so instant on is the future. If you had to wait 60 seconds before you could make a call on your mobile would that be a winner. I think not !!!

The best option in my opinion is to have what the Amiga 1000, it had a area of RAM that could be loaded with your BIOS and then it would switch to ROM. I guess these days it is like flashing your BIOS in all reality. Lets say have from 2-8Gb flash area. This could be either preloaded by the OEM or by the user with Ubuntu or whatever distro you like. With apps like OpenOffice, Firefox or Thunderbird built in. Now wouldn't that be fast !

As to Linux vs Windows, well all I can say is that we have 2 XP licenses here which rarely get used due to many many reasons. We also have a Vista license which I simply hate, it is the worst OS I have ever used they seemed to have thrown out logic when they created it. But all three have Ubuntu 8.10 on them, whilst not perfect it has proved to meet 99.9% of our needs. It has proven itself across many generations to be a more stable and friendly OS as time goes by. It is the most enjoyable OS I have used since I AmigaOS.

The final point I will make is that once these BIOS OS allow mounting of external devices like HD, SSD etc, they will make HD loading OS redundant to the majority of people. If MS ignores this trend I feel it will be their loss and it could be relegated to a non market leader.

It could be interesting to see if Google has plans to approach OEM about loading Android into the BIOS. Who knows what the future holds.

Linux on the desktop

Whilst as a fulltime Ubuntu user I have seen how usable and stable it has become I doubt that it has much chance of rapidly gaining such marketshare as currently to install ANY operating system (Ubuntu is certainly the easiest though) you need more IT knowledge than most user can muster (particularly as Windows makes it so difficult to burn a CD image) and few PC manufacturers would be willing to ship it in store on a standard laptop or desktop (until it reaches mass popularity except of course in the netbook market where by being one of the early comers it muscled its way in and still has a significant market share ... including me one my eeePC 1000h arrives :-) ). Whilst Ubuntu is still wonderful for basic users and pros alike if someone competent to install it and explain the basics Microsoft has just invested to much in its monopoly and making sure that users stay dumb for users to change on mass to a full open source operating system. That said however other open source software such as Firefox (20% ish), OpenOffice.org (5% ish) and the GIMP is gaining marketshare much quicker - hopefully we can expect to see a more open and competitive software industry soon if a totally open one is not possible. Btw. regarding the boot-time of splashtop debian hackers have shown that it is possible to get a fully featured (though highly customized) Linux system to boot in under 5 seconds and with Ubuntu Jaunty setting reduced boot-time as a goal and the customized kernel for the eeePC looking to be optimized for faster boot-time (based on instructions on how to get it down to 14 ish seconds) we could be seeing very impressive improvements for Linux across the board in this area (while Ubuntu is currently slightly faster than Windows for me (YMMV) that is not saying much).

I bought a brand new DELL

I bought a brand new DELL with vista installed, ready ton prove to all my friends that I have
been right to stick by microsoft over the years.
Three months in it was running as slow as my XP used to. My friend wacked a little orange disk into my old machine and laughed when it came to life. He has now done the same to my new machine
and now I consider the installation of vista a
glitch in my computers life. Go Ubuntu. I had
never heard of Linux, seems to make my PC reliable like a Mac. Nuff said.
I don't care the origin of the product.
I just want a computer that works!!!

FADER

Steven - Linux Hall of Shame candidate

Steven, please do not put yourself into the same basket with clearly insane Aaron Seigo, Jim Zemlin and several other linutics.
3% desktop user base by 2010 (as reported by such and such agency) would be a more realistic goal/projection/prediction. Your articles are targeting a very specific audience and therefore you live in an obviously faulty feedback environment. Linux is going nowhere on the desktop. Why? - 1. Repository based application installation model is clearly wrong; for both users and developers. Just give me (the user) a platform for running/installing the application I want to and give developers a clear and unified platform specs to write those apps for. - 2. No decent desktop environment - GNOME - slower than Vista, KDE - screwed up by Aaron Seigo beyond repair, XFCE - too ratty for normal users.

Stevie gets something right

Finally, Stevie says something right:

"Quietly, without many people noticing, the Linux desktop has become the mainstream..."

That's correct. Not "many people [are] noticing."

Linux outselling Windows on the desktop in 2009 is a complete joke. One day Linux might get there but not for a couple more years.

But that might not even work. Because the bigots like Stevie screeching 'Microsoft is crap'; 'Linux is great' are doing so as members of the open source/classic OS holy wars.

The non-geek users I know who actually own Vista computers look at me like I'm crazy when bring up any of the holy war Vista-bashing talking points. While most of the professional computer nerd press is in the tank for open source, outside this inbred society the gospel isn't getting preached.

Prior to Vista being the punching bag, it was XP. With all the grousing people aren't upgrading from XP to Vista is the implicit understanding XP isn't nearly as bad as folks like Stevie would have had us believe.

The real competition for the desktop is between Mac and Windows. Ironically, the Stevies of the world like Mac even though most the stuff that comes from Apple is more locked down and proprietary than anything Microsoft can dream up.

RTFA

Read the Fine Article... It's not about GNU/Linux displacing that other OS next year. It's about GNU/Linux being on many motherboards and being available at boot time. ASUS is pushing it as a feature and others are following suit just as they did with the netbook. ASUS sees fast access to a few primary functions as a good selling point. The consumer likes it. The OEMs and motherboard makers will run with it.

The result is 100% of new systems will likely have this feature (and have some basic GNU/Linux capability) and that other OS will be on 80% (or a bit more) of PCs so that leaves the thesis proved. 100%>80%

Unless one can make a decent argument that consumers, motherboard makers and OEMs will not love this feature, one can hardly claim SJVN is not right on.

The beauty of GNU/Linux and its licensing is that the cost of such a feature to an OEM is the price of a bit of silicon which is almost nothing these days. The return on investment in this technology is astronomical. For a wad of money invested in setting its boards up, ASUS gets to be higher on many wish-lists for Christmas and beyond. I will bet real money that someone will produce a netbook that uses only this technology. No main OS, nothing but a few key functions fast. Just like the MP3 player, the cell-phone, and the pencil. Pick it up and it works. Priceless. It will be hot.

Repository installation is a great feature of GNU/Linux. It may not cover every situation, but with a large repository one can instantly create a custom installation with lots of neat application or add an application or add an update for one machine or a thousand with little effort. Combined with the toughness of GNU/Linux, this method of distributing software means one rarely has to re-install. Just update forever. A new release is the same as an update. Simple and effective. I would never go back to the common system of hacking together a bunch of applications on top of that other OS. One has to update each application a different way with that other OS. With GNU/Linux a single command applies all available updates immediately. This is much less work for the system administrator. This is why so many businesses will reduce their total manpower costs for maintaining GNU/Linux. In these difficult times, that savings will be valuable.

Linux is way more flexible

Linux is way more flexible than Windows. For those that argue that XP or Vista is a nice and easy interface to use, it's just that an interface. In Linux you cane make it look anyway you want it, even like XP or Vista (I don't know if anyone made a theme like that yet), and an average persona wouldn't be able to tell the difference. With Windows OSs, you're stuck with only a few themes (maybe there are some 3rd-party programs, but they'll slow the system down probably).

Crossover rocks

I took advantage of Crossover's great giveaway last week. Amazing product! Now running Dreamweaver and Paint Shop Pro in Linux, they load faster than in XP.

I got it free, but a licensed copy is only $39.95.

Works with Wine, but makes for ultra-simple installs of Windows apps on Linux. And your apps run inside the big, protective arms of a very hacker-resistant OS!

http://www.codeweavers.com/products/cxlinux/

So Linux is so flexible that

So Linux is so flexible that I can tweak it to look just like my XP computer? Terrific! So now I can run my key Windows business applications on Linux? No? Oh well...

Yes you can actually. its

Yes you can actually. its called wine and in some cases its actually faster than windows