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Preston Gralla's picture
Preston Gralla

Seeing Through Windows

Five reasons why XP will never die

Microsoft is doing its best to kill Windows XP, but that's not going to happen. No matter what the company does, the operating system will live on. Here are five reasons why XP will never die.

Enterprises want XP

There's no escaping the simple fact that enterprises have snubbed Vista, and show no signs of abandoning XP. Just a few days ago, Forrester said that a survey of 50,000 enterprise users found that throughout 2007, Windows XP use remained at a steady 89%. Vista grew from zero to 6% in that same time, but that came about because users moved from Windows 2000 to Vista, not from XP to Vista. Don't expect corporations to switch to Vista from XP in 2008.

Small laptops and portables need XP

Small laptops, such as the Asus Eee, and the low-cost pocket devices that will use Intel's Atom processors, simply can't handle Vista. Vista requires too much processing power, graphics capabilities, and RAM. As Computerworld reports, Microsoft is expected to announce that it will allow these kinds of devices to use XP beyond the June 30 date the company has set for killing XP on new PCs. Sales of these devices will most likely skyrocket. So XP will be around for a very long time.

Users will wait for Windows 7

Windows 7 will most likely be here in late 2009 or possibly early 2010. Vista has been around for over a year; if someone hasn't switched to Vista by now, there's a good chance they'll be patient enough to wait until Windows 7 ships. I'm actually a big fan of Vista, particularly the new interface, Aero, easier wireless networking, and other benefits. But I know that not everyone is a fan, like I am. Microsoft has spent countless millions of dollars marketing and hyping Vista, so it's not as if people don't know about the operating system. To date, they've voted with their wallets. They're not about to change their votes.

The browser is the new operating system

It used to be that if you wanted to run the latest and greatest software, you had to have the newest operating system to run it. That's no longer the case. Software is no longer as dependent on the underlying operating system, and so there's less of a need to upgrade to a new operating system when new software comes out. All the action in new software and services is in Web 2.0, such as Google Docs and other online applications. You can access them no matter what operating system you use. In essence, the browser is the new operating system, so there's no need for people to upgrade from XP.

There are plenty of loopholes in XP's death sentence

Microsoft says that it will stop distributing XP to PC makers and retailers on June 30th. But if you read the fine print, you can see that's not really true. Custom system builders, for example, will be allowed to still put XP on hardware until January 31, 2009. And the XP Starter Edition, which is a stripped down version of XP for emerging markets, will be around until June 30, 2010. Not only that, but those who have bought Windows Vista Business or Ultimate are allowed to downgrade to XP as part of their license agreements.

The upshot in all this? Windows XP is alive and well. Microsoft can try to kill it, but it won't stay dead.

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What People Are Saying

Vista Drools XP Rules

Vista is totally unnecessary If you want your PC to be glitzy there are hundreds of shells out there & you can make XP look like anything you want including Vista for FREE without all the crap from Microsoft & also since X-mas 08 the Jan 31 09 I did 43 XP upgrades from Vista & I can put XP on anything I have a small PC repair shop in Ma & on avg I do between 5 & 7 XP upgrades a week people are sick of Vista is crap
& after looking at the new win 7 beta Im not really impressed with that iether I dont think we need to be forced into a new OS & then end up being blackmailed into buying new software when our old stuff works just fine If it aint broke dont fix it & XP aint broke

Rumors of Vista's Demise . . .

Enterprises have not snubbed Vista. Enterprises that need performance, benefit from 64-bit computing and greater memory are moving swiftly to Vista. Call any Architecture or Engineering firm and ask.

Small systems do run faster on XP now. They'd run even faster with Windows 98. So what? The hardware continues to get faster and even the smallest devices are starting to show up with Vista.

Wait for Windows 7? Really? It's at least 2 years away, maybe longer. Is Windows 7 going to be smaller, faster, and support more old hardware than Vista? I doubt it.

The browser is not the new operating system. We've been hearing about this "paradigm shift" for 10 years. It is true that the browser has become the platform for many applications, and will continue (thankfully) to make more progress in this area. But many apps will never run in a browser, and many of us will never replace powerful PC's with dumb terminals either. Beleive it or not, a lot of enterprises use their PC's for more than word processingm, email and internet access.

Vista wasn't worth it

Vista's problem isn't that it can't run on the computers of today. It's that it couldn't run on the computers of yesterday.

The economy wants an upgrade to Windows XP. It's eight years old, but now, it's the only Windows product that offers performance and features that most people and businesses need. Vista and Seven offer really no good reason to upgrade, and Vista required bulky new hardware. It still does. Tried running Vista on anything less than 2 GB of RAM? It's unthinkable, or at least requires effort that most firms you claim are switching that don't want to invest.

Microsoft actually got their act together and made Seven faster and more compatible with hardware - Why, you ask? Because while users wanted an upgrade, they didn't want to buy new computers to do it. This is a huge and unexpected turn of events, and one Microsoft couldn't have predicted. Users see iTunes and their programs updating without changing computer hardware, so they demanded the same of their OS. Microsoft has had no choice but to deliver.

Yes, Win7 is a better operating system than Vista. It's faster. But it may not be enough to get people off XP, which is was Microsoft fears the most. Anything businesses want can be taken from XP or in a smaller extent cases even Linux.

Seven is predicted to come out in Q3 of this year; not quite two years as you spouted. I don't know where you got that one.

My Hp sales rep says that i

My Hp sales rep says that i will be able to order new PC's with XP as a downgrade through 2008.

Microsoft "should" be

Microsoft "should" be financially impacted by this forced move to Vista, whether they will is hard to predict.

I think Microsoft fail in three regards:

(i) Forcing users to move to a new UI every few years (in the XP->Vista case there appears to be no benefit at all). Users have to relearn how to do everything, which is just annoying. This seems to be a clear case of Microsoft ignoring the views of their customer base. I'm sure they held focus groups to test the UI however the mainstream user is happy with XP and does NOT want to change.

(ii) Windows and Microsoft Office applications do have bugs and quirky behaviors - rather than simply fix the software they change the UI. The adage often mistakenly attributed to Petronius - "reorganization gives the illusion of progress while producing confusion, inefficiency and demoralization" seems very appropriate in this case.

(iii) Forcing users to move to new and updated hardware platforms simply to allow Microsoft to trumpet the success of Vista is ridiculous.

My company is actively researching a move to a Mac environment - we are quite happy with XP however we are very unhappy with Microsoft.

Quit the hyperbole.

I dunno, Preston. "Never" is a very, very long time...

Acually, Never isn't THAT long!

I read a lot of stories and articles online, especially about Microsoft, Google, Vista, Ubuntu, and others. It's kinda like a hobby. I've read articles and comments from people who still use DOS, or a very old version of Windows, like 3.1! The truth is, some people are smart enough to not fall for the line that they simply MUST have the *NEW* Windows OS. They use what works for them.

I've read plenty of times that there are Enterprises that have completely sworn off Vista already, and are waiting to see what the future Windows version will hold in store. Some, who aren't all that optimistic about the future of Windows, are switching to Linux.

Vista has been compared to ME in terms of flunking badly. Maybe there are people who like(d) ME, but software providers almost consistently skip over it, when listing the versions that their new title will work on. It is commonly referred to as the worst OS Microsoft ever made. At least it WAS, until Vista!

Never doesn't seem so long, when talking about upgrading to Vista. In fact, I've also read of people who "upgraded" from Vista to XP (their words), or even bought a Vista computer, and a fresh copy of XP in the same purchase. Betcha can't guess what THAT guy had in mind? I personally would not own a Vista machine if it were given to me. I would upgrade it to Ubuntu 8.04 as soon as I got it home, and take great pleasure in doing so!

Microsoft just committed

Microsoft just committed financial suicide by discontinuing a big money maker and a very popular and good running operating system. I am sure the stock holders are not happy with this.

I would not be surprised if some actually call for Steve Ballmer's resignation for yet what appears to be another poor business decision.

Yet Microsoft's loss will be Linux' and Apple's big win. Already Linux has been making in-roads with the EePC laptops and in many other areas.

A popular trend right now is dual booting. People are installing a Linux Operating System on their Windows computers as a dual boot. The reason for this ranges from better performance with Linux, to learning the ins and the outs of Linux before they move eventually to Linux.

While this may come as a surprise, there are mandates through out the world to move to open source. One of the newest with mandates to go open source is Russia, joining the Philippines, South America, The French Police, City of Munich and many others.

Surely this does not bode well for Microsoft, especially now in this point in time when we and many other nations are going through a financial recession. Companies and Governments must cut back and are looking for alternatives.

What is even more amazing is that MSFT didn't even see the "smaller is better" tiny laptop trend. They have the best minds that money could buy and yet they just let Linux take hold of that market in a big way.

For a stock holder in MSFT, one really needs to ask questions of why they let that market slip away so fast. More importantly someone needs to ask questions about what to about the growing open source mandates. Somehow I doubt XP Home on small laptops till 2010 will fully address the problem.

Finally it is a safe bet that Vista right now at this time can only run "properly" on 15 to 25% of the world's computers.

MSFT (for the most part) shut themselves off to at least 75% of the world's computers by only selling Vista after June 30 2008. Ouch!

There are some who are actually happy that XP (in the conventional sense) is being discontinued. They are not Vista users, but Linux and Apple fans who see this latest move as the final nail in Microsoft's coffin.

The open source community seems well poised to accept new users to Linux. A new distribution of Ubuntu Linux (8.04) will be released in 20 or so days .

Wine which is the free program that lets you run Windows applications under Linux will be releasing the finished version 1.0 in early June 2008.

And the last time I checked the Ubuntu forums have been pretty busy lately. they have over 540,000 members and over four million, six hundred thousand posts. Yes there is "some" interest in alternatives.

And Apple? last look they are doing pretty good...(since Vista was released).

And Microsoft ????

And they said the same thing...

...when they stopped supporting MS/DOS, windows 3.x, NT 4.0, and 98. anyone else see a pattern here?

Wow, you must work for some

Wow, you must work for some marketing dept somewhere, your message and motives are clear. Microsoft is not dying. The loss of marketshare to other OS'es will simply give them a competeve edge to come out with a better OS next time.