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Mini-notebooks are here to stay

Some critics seem to think that UMPC (ultra mobile PCs) are just a fad. Wrong. They're here to stay.

In Ultraportable laptops: Their rise and possible fall, David Haskin reports that "While pundits and technology journalists have lavished attention on these products, skeptics have raised questions. For instance, is there anything really special about these devices, or do they just represent old technology in new packaging? Are users as enthusiastic about these tiny laptops as the pundits are? Will they fade away like so many other 'next big things?'"

Haskin goes on to report that Avi Greengart, mobile device research director at Current Analysis, for one, said that "It's way too early to talk about this being a viable product category."

Sorry, that's not the case.

I get that there's really nothing new about UMPCs. One of my all time favorite computer -- I went through three of them -- was the original Nec Ultralite in the late 1980s. It used, as I recall, a 8MHz 8086 variant chip, ran MS-DOS, had a 2MB (yes that's two, count em, two megabytes) silicon disk, a 2,400 baud modem, and weighted about 4 pounds.

It doesn't sound like much now, but at the time, it was about equal to today's Asus EEE 1000 or MSI Wind. So why do I think small laptops will take off this time if they haven't before?

One major plus is price. My first Nec Ultralite cost me $2,500. That was 1988 dollars. Today, a high-end UMPC will run me about $600; a low-end one will bit my wallet for $300.

Combine this with relatively high-speed 1.6GHz Intel Atom or 1.6Ghz Via C7-M, a decent-sized SSD (solid-state drives), and 802.11g Wi-Fi for connectivity, a 9-inch or so screen, and you have a very useful cheap laptop. On top of that you can run Linux on it, which will also save you money, or, if you insist XP Home SP3.

The earlier small systems all had compromises. They were extremely expensive, like my Ultralite; had tiny, five-inch, screens; ran compromised desktop operating systems like Windows Mobile; or all three. Today's UMPCs, netbooks, mini-notebook, or whatever you want to call them are simply small, inexpensive laptops.

Last, but far from least, while I like UMPCs, the major OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) like them even more than I do.

At the recent LinuxWorld trade show in San Francisco, I chaired a panel on OEMs and desktop Linux. Among others, I had Jim Mann, an HP Technology Strategist; John Hull, Dell's Linux Engineering, Manager and Debra Kobs-Fortner, Lenovo's Director of Software Strategy. All of them agreed that UMPCs are not a fad. Instead, the consensus was that users seem to be adopting them as secondary computers. At first, vendors thought that these would be home computers. Asus believed, believe it or not, that they'd sell mostly to women in their 30s and 40s who stayed at home.

Instead, business users - many, many business users -- are the ones picking up the UMPCs. That's even better news from a Linux perspective since you can incorporate desktop Linux into even a Microsoft business network while you can't do that with XP Home.

No one saw this market exploding like it has, but the people investing hundreds of millions of dollars into UMPC production are now convinced that mini-notebooks are here to stay. That's one reason why you haven't see Dell's mini-notebook, the Dell Inspiron 910 yet. Dell wants to make sure that their entry into the market is a great one. You see, Dell, and the other major OEMs, have no doubt that the mini-notebook is here to stay.

What People Are Saying

Mobile really?

I think that the "best" UMPC is the XO-1 from a hardware point of view:
- it doesn't use much power so it has a long uptime (in part because it can display a static screen without involving the CPU allowing deeper sleep)
- its screen is readable even in the Sun.
- it's sturdy (no fan, no mobile part).

While I agree that UMPC has a future, current hardware is quite laughable in comparison to what it should be..

It's more of "Hoping an Wishing" they are a fad.

Look at what they have done. They have shown that you don't need the latest and greatest horsepower to be productive. They all come with the deprecated dead enf XP Home Basic version or some version of Linux with a full line of productivity apps. (and for the technical, more hacks, cracks and tricks to keep the geeks more than happy).

I would suggest that MS doesn't like this trend because it can't help but do two things. 1) Force their margins down to zero and 2) look into optimizing their upcoming OS. Without Windows at the top of the pyramid, the entrenched Windows enabled ecosystem starts to break down. Better to try to tell everyone they are stupid, this is a fad and get people back on track to dual core 3 gig $1K+ laptops.

TripleII

The perfect UMPC

The only thing still missing from UMPCs to make them perfect portable devices, is an onboard AM-FM-TV tuner.

Lots of people already watch TV or movies inside their cars on tiny screens, why not watching TV everywhere?

Radio is great for getting the weather forecast when there's no web connection. And besides, local weather forecasts are always more precise than what you get from weather.com and others.

Why doesn't anybody make AM tuners? AM is great for listening to sports live!

What about mini tablets?

I am looking into these machines, but really
would rather have a tablet like I have now. The
problem with the one I have, besides age, is
it is hot, heavier than it should be, and needs
to be more portable.

It could be that these machines will really take
off if they were tablets. Anything in the pipe
line?

Tablets

Tablets seem to be destined to always be niche items. Every few years someone comes up with the idea that the world is ready for a tablet PC... and it never is, The one tablet/touch device that has taken off--the iPhone and its close relative, the iPod Touch--has an entirely different form factor. I suspect full-powered PC style tablets are going to have only tiny, vertical audiences.

Steven

Computing for everyone and everywhere :)

I think that they are here to stay to. One thing that could make them more approachable for everybody would be improving the selection of software applications. Something like optional downloadable usage profiles. It can be:
a) A machine for general Internet use as they are now.

b) A basic education tool with educational sw ready to download.

c) A medium to high education profile (Can be the best scientific calculator ever
with math software, computer algebra, statistics, geometry, note keeper,
mind mapping software (freemind), latex processor and frontends, etc.

d) Entertainment and back to the basics mobile gaming platform.
(by far more flexible than current mobile gaming options)

For all of these are open source options and commercial agreements could be achieved too. It's a matter of making distribution agreements.

Regarding to hardware, a few things could be added, like a low power consumption always on mode for sending meeting notifications, receiving IP phone calls and listening Internet radio even with the machine closed. May be some phone grade external little display and a the minimum external controls for the same purpose.

Critics should keep in mind that just because it has the shape of a laptop doesn't mean
that it's one. It's just a mobile computing platform that mops the floor with the PSP, PDA's, smartphones or multifunctional mp3 players.

Just like the early PCs?

"old technology in new packaging"

Isn't that what some people said about PCs when they first came out back in the, in the... really old days?

They said, "Who would want a computer in their home?" Now they're saying "Who would want a computer in their back yard? At the cottage? In a canoe?"

The ULPC extends computing to new places and like the PC, I think it will (and already is) opening up new opportunities.

Here to stay?

Welcome to last week! Old news, man.

Here to stay, OK

That's right! These tiny laptops are a new class of device: compact and lightweight, cheap, robust (with SSD and smaller, stiffer case), high level of integration (hardware and software), MUCH easier to use than a PDA, and perhaps most significant, a mass-market business and consumer class of device cleverly designed with Linux in mind. What's not to like? Unless you're an increasingly nervous MSoftie.

I've been expecting this for some time, as the price of hardware continues to fall and the price of software continues to rise. Are we ever going to see Windows-powered wristwatches, phones, or massively parallel supercomputers? No. Windows is becoming the niche market for dummies, who don't know any better and who can't bear change.

I haven't bought one yet; I'm a special case, they are semi-optional for me as none could be my prime computer. And I'm holding out for really outstanding battery life. If I travelled much, I'd be on one straight away. They even have a place in the server room, cheaper and smarter than a KVM!

Right on!

I totally agree. I couldn't figure out why the Palm Foleo was killed, just before this whole new category of devices was created. But now to get Ubuntu Linux on a little Dell machine -- and perhaps tomorrow, at that! -- is really good news.

I've never been happy with notebook computers. My 12-inch ThinkPad X21 was a lousy desktop replacement, while my 14-inch desktop replacement ThinkPad T42 was a pain to lug around while traveling. They were always a compromise. And I would never want to enter a blog post on my old BlackBerry keyboard. I think these netbooks will be a huge success, and we'll finally get back to having desktop systems and netbooks as our two computers, with mobile phones being, well, phones. College students might depend on a sole notebook computer, but at $300, even they may grab a netbook for outside their dorm rooms.

If only Lenovo would have put Ubuntu Linux on their IdeaPad S10 netbook, too. With Dell's rumored Inspiron 910 netbook, I'll have Ubuntu all the way around -- from 9-inch netbook to 24-inch workstation to headless dedicated server!