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Preston Gralla's picture
Preston Gralla

Seeing Through Windows

More reasons Windows 7 will kill Linux

In my last blog I explained why Windows 7 will kill Linux sales on lightweight notebooks called netbooks. Here's more evidence: ASUS CEO Jerry Shen says he plans to release versions of the Eee PC powered by Windows 7 in mid 2009, including touchscreen models. With sales figures showing that Windows netbooks already far outsell their Linux counterparts, this could be the nail in the coffin.

As I pointed out in my last blog, Windows 7 will run well on lightweight netbooks with limited RAM and processing power. It will run so well, in fact, that ASUS CEO Jerry Shen told Laptop magazine that he plans to release Windows 7-powered versions of the Eee in the middle of 2009, including touchscreen models.

Currently Eee PCs are sold with either Windows XP or Linux, not Vista, because Vista is too heavy an operating system. Microsoft has clearly seen the light here: Windows 7 has been designed to be lightweight so that it can run well on netbooks. That spells trouble for Linux.

There's a general perception that Linux outsells Windows on netbooks, but apparently that's not the case, which make things more difficult for Linux acceptance. In a July 2008 article apc notes that Windows appears to be outselling Linux on netbooks. In the piece, apc interviews Hugo Ortega, who is a principal of the distributor Tegatech, which sells the Eee as well as other ultra-mobile PCs (UMPCs) such as the HP 2133 Mini-Note PC. Not all of these ultra-mobile devices are inexpensive; some cost more than $3000.

Ortega is quoted as saying:

Linux only accounts for probably 20% of Eee PC sales and less than 5% of overall UMPC sales.

Ortega is not alone in saying this. Felipe Rego, associate market analyst with IDC Australia, tells apc:

It’s going to be tough in the long term for Linux-based mini-notebooks. Microsoft will play tough in this space, where there’s a massive presence of Windows. We don’t have expectations yet for Eee sales of XP vs Linux, but Linux definitely needs to create increased awareness. If you go into the mainstream, people just want something easy that they recognise.

You can be sure when Microsoft blitzes the world with a massive advertising campaign for Windows 7, they'll be spending many millions promoting Windows 7 on netbooks. And given that marketing muscle, Linux most likely won't stand a chance, regardless of which operating system is superior.

Preston Gralla is a contributing editor for Computerworld, and the author of more than 35 books.

What People Are Saying

There's no way that Windows

There's no way that Windows 7 is going to kill Linux. First, because Linux means much more than just getting software for free. It means freedom. Okay, most ordinary people are willing to sell their freedom in exchange for proprietary software which they think is better. Most of the time it is because they either do not know about free software or do not know enough about computers to run Linux. This is about to change with Ubuntu bring a very easy Linux experience to ordinary users.

Linux has only been expanding with years, there's no way it can be stopped. For sure, Microsoft and other companies can try as hard as they can to stop it, it is only going to slow the progress of Linux.

Linux is making Microsoft very worried for its future, and I would also be worried if I were them.

Windows 7 Kill Linux - NOT!!

Hey, let's face it. Microsoft has become bloated software that isn't compatible with older hardware (Bloatsa). It's just like the car companies that didn't pay attention to markets. In case you didn't realize we are in an economic downturn. This means that millions of people who have lost their jobs will not go out and purchase a new OS called Windows 7 and new hardware 400-1000K or more (waste, waste, waste). The elite will go out and get the latest and greatest. MS is just scared about market share and rightfully so. You are blowing it when it comes to the one thing that made the company (the desktop). I have 12 years in IT make well over 80K per year as a DBA. I dabbled with Linux for several years and recently installed Ubuntu. Summary = MS better get with the program else end up like Chrysler.

Believe it or not, people

Believe it or not, people would rather keep their old version of windows (XP) than switch to Linux.

Only Use Microsoft Windows

Thats like saying everyone is stupid, can never learn anything and better rely on (JO TECH STUPID) all he knows is Microsoft anything else can’t be good because its free and must be against the law?? Better to waste ones money eat Pizza every night because I can’t cook!!!

Fine eat only Pizza that’s your choice not others!!

Maybe you don’t understand because usually you dont get what you pay for!!! like Microsoft said, they listened when Vista came out??? I mean (windows 7) Please.(Thats why my TV card does not work under Vista)!!!

Linux users have Closed View?? Ha Ha, I thought life was about trying something new to learn something different to open ones source of mind and aspect on the view of life???.....

The fact is NOT everyone wants to sit around all day wasting time waiting for "my computer guy" (JO TECH STUPID) to come around!!!

And when he does come around tells you that ,it’s a Microsoft thing why you can’t play DivX on your xbox360!!! What,, an idiot!!!

I wanna know I am in control at no cost and can get to that meeting on time because I arranged it!!...

You CANT make money from Linux because NOBODY owns it!! Its like the Air that you breath!! Its free, take it away and you kill allot of people by polluting the atmosphere on purpose and then getting people to pay for cleaner air or pay taxes/licence So they can profit and make money from it, keeping people in control .

(Better for them not to know how it works but provide it as a profit making service)???

wow What an idiot!!! WHAT AN IDIOT!!!.....

Obviously you missed the

Obviously you missed the point. Betamax was better quality but VHS was more convenient. There are great stores available but Walmart is one stop shopping. People in the US generally follow the herd. Look at what people buy and what they don't buy. Hershey chocolate is everywhere, but you have to look for Lindt's. It's not a matter of what is better, it's what people buy. People watch the same old rehashed crap on tv because they know what to expect. Look at how many movies have been remade and they are still making money. Bottom line is most people just want comfort and familiarity. If you live in a world where everybody is not like that then please let the rest of us know where that is. Unless you can market it in a way that makes people see why it is better, they won't go to it. And as far as not making money on LINUX, wake up, ASUS, MSI, ACER, Dell and HP are doing that right now. You don't make the money selling LINUX, you make the money on selling the LINUX box. It's like your cell phone, you pay for the service, you don't ask how it's connected.

Reality for you Linux fanboys

Now I have your attention, stop and think about what I am about to say. Windows will beat Linux on netbooks for 1 reason, the audience using netbooks. You assume that because you want to spend time "knowing" how you pc works that everybody else does also. THEY DON'T! The average person buying a pc, laptop or netbook wants something they are familiar with and they can use easily. They want to plug it in and if they have a problem be able to call "my computer guy" and have it fixed fast. Most of them have a "computer guy" that is a friend or relative that knows just a little more than they do. These people are not going to run to a free os. They believe you get what you pay for. They follow the Warren Buffet thought process, if you don't know what it is, don't get it. These people are the reason every pizza joint in the country has delivery, they want convenience, and Windows offers that. So what that there is a security issue, they don't even use passwords at home, they let the system store all of them for them. They don't do updates on their own, they don't even install their own programs. Geez, they don't buy anything without the blessing of their "computer guy". And you fanboys think these people are going to use Linux just because it's free, wake up. You guys are tech freaks, to you it's a no brainer, to them, it's not worth the hassle. You fanboys should stop assuming the world looks at computing like you do, most of the population here is baby boomer or older, they don't set the clocks on the microwave! You should look "Big Picture" instead of your closed view. I'm not the biggest fan of m$ but I use it because I have too many people calling me that do, and I need to be able to walk them thru a problem or help them fast. And for you guys that don't get it, if Linux is sooooo great, and soooo viable as a Windows killer, then why is there nobody trying to make money off it? When somebody finds a way to financially profit from an open source system, then it will be marketed and promoted in a way to compete with the big boys. Until then it will remain a tech guy thing and the mainstream public will not care.

I am somewhere between. I do not fit in the schemes

I am somewhere in between. I do not fit in those two schemes

And I do believe that bunch of people like me is growing.

What then I am?

1) First - this I write from my first linux system - open SUSE I installed this week.

2) I am not IT, or by any other way connected with computer or software jobs. Neither I am Linux fanboy. I AM BIOLOGIST at work. And I am 30 years old. (that means I am becoming lazy to learn new things and most importantly I working so heavily that I have problems to find time to good study of new complex things anyway)

3) On the other hand I am getting sick from Windows doing an stupid idiot from me all the time. MS tries to cut out still bigger part of population pie , so every then, now and again when releasing new System it assumes that the average user is dumber and dumber fool then before.
- While not doing what I set the system to do, it tries to "predict" what I might do in future (unable to predict it anyway), consuming for it missing PC performance clearly against my will. The missing performance then causes laggs to the only thing I wish it shall do. It priorities tasks independently on me, doing things I wish it would not do and even consuming incredible portion of the PC time for it, while letting me wait with whatever I would priorities.

4) I do not love the idea, that I finally will understand how the OS/PC/program/whatsoeverSoftware system actually works. I would simply be happy with the system which on the first place is doing what I will tell it to do and not what it thinks I might wish it to do.
If some understanding of the "how to" system works is required, so to some degree I will learn, but that is hardly the part I will be enthusiastic about.

5) I am not alone. In our team, there is bunch of people like me, each going crazy from Windows, working simultaneously with several very very demanding programs (on RAM memory, while not having enough fonds for newer hardware), so trying to priorities the task according the needs in task manager, praying for avoiding some freezing up and so on, getting craze from instant lagging.

So I am now third from some 12 ppl in work trying some dual boot (some programs are simply mandatory here and doesnt work in Wine/linux environment). I realized that Immediately after instalation another three of them independently on each other get quite interested :) in possibility to work in Linux too (depending on my success actually).

I fancy that I might represent some new/first wave of people not migrating to Linux because of the love for building the new and better world. I might rather represent the wave of the poor wretched first real emigrants from suffocating Windows, ... not knowing exactly what future might await us on that new continent and pretty well scared from that fact.

.
WE ARE THE PEOPLE IN BETWEEN we do not demand to understand HOW THE PC WORKS. But we are not the above mentioned AVERAGE PERSON BUING A PC either. WE DO AND WE MUST INSTALL OUR PROGRAMS ON OUR PCs OURSELVES, no administrator can do that for us. No IT has an expertise in bionformatics programs and in lot of other stuff used and upgraded on daily bases here.

WE JUST REQUIRE AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE WE ARE THE ONEs WHO ARE IN CONTROL WHAT IS BEING INSTALLED, WHAT IS RUNNING, HOW AND WHEN. IF the Linux would show itself as the solution, then we would stick to Linux even though we all have the legal way to the Windows. NON MATH/ NON IT/ NON PHYSICS SCIENTISTS (simply the other scientists) MIGHT BE THE NEXT COMING WAVE TO massively JOIN THE LINUX USERS after the first mentioned ones (I think the researchers make up some another 2% of the population in developed world)
.

Well so I am not the fanboy either - that means here, that even though we are living in Google-time, some descriptive tutorial would be very handy for introduction.

I may google out what the hack the rpm, tar, Yast2, package management, ... permissions are, but it takes some 'surprising' time. Someone who didnt know that he should look for what, till the time when he first time tried to install something .... and finding only then slowly out the chain of google dependencies :))) .... everzthing after he tried it for "executable". To find out that he should try to google out something about permission r-rw-x is unfortunately not that straightforward even though he is a witty one. (What do You think)
Well it is not that it is bad adventure to learn by this way all the things, but the boss in work surprisingly doesnt seems to like my management of work :))). (I try the linux for work mainly)

to learn from tutorial videos or to print the text of the tutorials happens to be adventure of the same kind anyway, when one is actually struggling to find the tutorial how to install stuff (well including the flash player for video and drivers for printer)

In few days I was over those essentials, but with incorporated tutorials like this:

http://www.linux.org/lessons/beginner/

IT WOULD BE MUCH FASTER (in hours - what was now in days)

Petr Skupa

No Windows 7 for me

I have been using Windows since 3.1. Recently I finally switched from Windows to Linux at home. I had already been using Linux at my business for 7 years. Why? Because Linux has saved me thousands upon thousands of dollars, and works better than Windows. I especially enjoy not taking down my servers and computers all of the time installing security patches. If I need a piece of software for any function at all, I can download it for free and have it installed on my Linux computer within minutes. No need to go window shopping. Open source has been putting the squeeze on Microsoft and I hope it continues. I still use a Pentium III for my main computer with Fedora 10, and it works fine. I'm not going out to waste $400 and buy a new desktop just to upgrade to Windows Vista/7. Over the years my frustration with Microsoft products has increased, to the extent that I finally decided to vent and write my own personal article: http://members.apex-internet.com/sa/windowslinux.

What's with all the fighting talk?

I really don't understand why people are talking about this as though only one OS can win. Competition is good for innovation and always has been. We have a Windows desktop, a Macbook and an Ubuntu linux netbook in our house. They have all been tweaked to be how we want them. Ultimately these different platforms will continue to coexist and people will choose what works for them.

How can you kill the sales of something that isn't sold?

For the most part Linux isn't sold, it is freely given away. So how No matter which way you look at it MS is always going to be afraid or Linux because it always has the potential to "Kill Windows Sales". Remember Windows is actually sold and Linux is not. Now I am a big believer in Capitalism and Free Entertprise but with that you have to make a product that is competative to keep your market share. Thank God for the Linux community (not just for the this reason) for developing an OS('s) that are giving MS Windows competition and forcing them to make their product "better". Oh, and just becuase MS Windows has been shoved in our faces and most have blindly accepted it and are not "familiar/comfortable" with it, even though everyone I talk to complains about the computer problem they are have (running windows), doesn't make MS Windows better. Is sanity statistical?