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Preston Gralla's picture
Preston Gralla

Seeing Through Windows

More reasons Windows 7 will kill Linux

In my last blog I explained why Windows 7 will kill Linux sales on lightweight notebooks called netbooks. Here's more evidence: ASUS CEO Jerry Shen says he plans to release versions of the Eee PC powered by Windows 7 in mid 2009, including touchscreen models. With sales figures showing that Windows netbooks already far outsell their Linux counterparts, this could be the nail in the coffin.

As I pointed out in my last blog, Windows 7 will run well on lightweight netbooks with limited RAM and processing power. It will run so well, in fact, that ASUS CEO Jerry Shen told Laptop magazine that he plans to release Windows 7-powered versions of the Eee in the middle of 2009, including touchscreen models.

Currently Eee PCs are sold with either Windows XP or Linux, not Vista, because Vista is too heavy an operating system. Microsoft has clearly seen the light here: Windows 7 has been designed to be lightweight so that it can run well on netbooks. That spells trouble for Linux.

There's a general perception that Linux outsells Windows on netbooks, but apparently that's not the case, which make things more difficult for Linux acceptance. In a July 2008 article apc notes that Windows appears to be outselling Linux on netbooks. In the piece, apc interviews Hugo Ortega, who is a principal of the distributor Tegatech, which sells the Eee as well as other ultra-mobile PCs (UMPCs) such as the HP 2133 Mini-Note PC. Not all of these ultra-mobile devices are inexpensive; some cost more than $3000.

Ortega is quoted as saying:

Linux only accounts for probably 20% of Eee PC sales and less than 5% of overall UMPC sales.

Ortega is not alone in saying this. Felipe Rego, associate market analyst with IDC Australia, tells apc:

It’s going to be tough in the long term for Linux-based mini-notebooks. Microsoft will play tough in this space, where there’s a massive presence of Windows. We don’t have expectations yet for Eee sales of XP vs Linux, but Linux definitely needs to create increased awareness. If you go into the mainstream, people just want something easy that they recognise.

You can be sure when Microsoft blitzes the world with a massive advertising campaign for Windows 7, they'll be spending many millions promoting Windows 7 on netbooks. And given that marketing muscle, Linux most likely won't stand a chance, regardless of which operating system is superior.

Preston Gralla is a contributing editor for Computerworld, and the author of more than 35 books.

What People Are Saying

I simply cant believe what

I simply cant believe what pompous hype i read, in the time when i'm trying to simply change security on folder inside win7. Not that i wanna change it but i must cause win7 doesnt allow me to change anything on external drive .... duh. What a moronic os i must add. On the other way i'd change that chowns in linux i matter of seconds while wait this last 35 min and counting. Really a killer OS. Maybe suicide rate grew up from happy Win users :[

Changing permissions

Changing permissions *inside* Windows 7 folders is complicated, but possible. What was preventing you from changing permissions or accessing the external drive?

There's no way that Windows

There's no way that Windows 7 is going to kill Linux. First, because Linux means much more than just getting software for free. It means freedom. Okay, most ordinary people are willing to sell their freedom in exchange for proprietary software which they think is better. Most of the time it is because they either do not know about free software or do not know enough about computers to run Linux. This is about to change with Ubuntu bring a very easy Linux experience to ordinary users.

Linux has only been expanding with years, there's no way it can be stopped. For sure, Microsoft and other companies can try as hard as they can to stop it, it is only going to slow the progress of Linux.

Linux is making Microsoft very worried for its future, and I would also be worried if I were them.

i guess that linux folks

i guess that linux folks (witch i used to be for loong time and still am in some way) forgot that computer is not only *the machine that runs mighty linux* but for many people just tool - and windows fits for them.
i remember times when even installation of linux was a pain in the ass, now i can barely see visual difference (and to be honest, linux is turning into same all-in-one bulky dino as windows).
so, what makes difference?

i guess ability to run commercial games and software just-like-that. make linux that will and you kill windows :} but to this time i bet on windows - it's still the most multi-purpose system made.

saying that games are not important, or that you have alternatives on linux... yeah, but it's like hollywood and c-class movies. both are movies, and both might be good, but you can cleary see the difference.

you got wine and cedega (with i commercial and i don't count that as FREE software, even with free version that has no securom so you can not play without no-cd hacks... and so on). and wine... you can play oldies.

so, if you like to play newer games you stuck with windows, same if you use windows-only software, and sometimes you have to. no other free way.

Windows 7 Kill Linux - NOT!!

Hey, let's face it. Microsoft has become bloated software that isn't compatible with older hardware (Bloatsa). It's just like the car companies that didn't pay attention to markets. In case you didn't realize we are in an economic downturn. This means that millions of people who have lost their jobs will not go out and purchase a new OS called Windows 7 and new hardware 400-1000K or more (waste, waste, waste). The elite will go out and get the latest and greatest. MS is just scared about market share and rightfully so. You are blowing it when it comes to the one thing that made the company (the desktop). I have 12 years in IT make well over 80K per year as a DBA. I dabbled with Linux for several years and recently installed Ubuntu. Summary = MS better get with the program else end up like Chrysler.

Believe it or not, people

Believe it or not, people would rather keep their old version of windows (XP) than switch to Linux.

Yep. It is quite amazing

Yep.

It is quite amazing that the Linux people always come up with excuse after excuse when over and over again consumers have rejected Linux. People don't want your Linux. Get over it.

Only Use Microsoft Windows

Thats like saying everyone is stupid, can never learn anything and better rely on (JO TECH STUPID) all he knows is Microsoft anything else can’t be good because its free and must be against the law?? Better to waste ones money eat Pizza every night because I can’t cook!!!

Fine eat only Pizza that’s your choice not others!!

Maybe you don’t understand because usually you dont get what you pay for!!! like Microsoft said, they listened when Vista came out??? I mean (windows 7) Please.(Thats why my TV card does not work under Vista)!!!

Linux users have Closed View?? Ha Ha, I thought life was about trying something new to learn something different to open ones source of mind and aspect on the view of life???.....

The fact is NOT everyone wants to sit around all day wasting time waiting for "my computer guy" (JO TECH STUPID) to come around!!!

And when he does come around tells you that ,it’s a Microsoft thing why you can’t play DivX on your xbox360!!! What,, an idiot!!!

I wanna know I am in control at no cost and can get to that meeting on time because I arranged it!!...

You CANT make money from Linux because NOBODY owns it!! Its like the Air that you breath!! Its free, take it away and you kill allot of people by polluting the atmosphere on purpose and then getting people to pay for cleaner air or pay taxes/licence So they can profit and make money from it, keeping people in control .

(Better for them not to know how it works but provide it as a profit making service)???

wow What an idiot!!! WHAT AN IDIOT!!!.....

Obviously you missed the

Obviously you missed the point. Betamax was better quality but VHS was more convenient. There are great stores available but Walmart is one stop shopping. People in the US generally follow the herd. Look at what people buy and what they don't buy. Hershey chocolate is everywhere, but you have to look for Lindt's. It's not a matter of what is better, it's what people buy. People watch the same old rehashed crap on tv because they know what to expect. Look at how many movies have been remade and they are still making money. Bottom line is most people just want comfort and familiarity. If you live in a world where everybody is not like that then please let the rest of us know where that is. Unless you can market it in a way that makes people see why it is better, they won't go to it. And as far as not making money on LINUX, wake up, ASUS, MSI, ACER, Dell and HP are doing that right now. You don't make the money selling LINUX, you make the money on selling the LINUX box. It's like your cell phone, you pay for the service, you don't ask how it's connected.

"You don't make the money

"You don't make the money selling LINUX, you make the money on selling the LINUX box. It's like your cell phone, you pay for the service, you don't ask how it's connected."

This is exactly part of the problem. For OEMs selling a Linux box is probably more than fine, but the support is what is lacking. Once you sell a Linux (black) box and after six months the buyer needs to reinstall Linux to get support, and while reinstalling the Linux is broken on the box that was sold as a Linux box, the buyer gets angry. And more than rightly so.

The real quality of Linux comes with vendors like Red Hat. But the price of that is probably out of the question for Netbooks, and well, those quality Linux systems lack the desktop experience.

So you're left in a vicious cycle of barely working Linux desktop systems with six months of support. Of course that is fine for OEMs if they really believe that people will buy a new Linux box every six months.