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Scott McPherson

Tiptoeing Through Minefields

New IT flu pandemic presentation, checklist available.

9 comments

TAGS:bird flu, business continuity, disaster recovery, pandemic, Swine flu
IT TOPICS:Government & Regulation, Management, Mobile & Wireless, Security, Servers & Data Center

As promised, I have uploaded two new documents to the Florida CIO Council Pandemic Website.

The first document is "IT pandemic presentation, updated for swine influenza," Scott McPherson, author. April 2009, a Powerpoint presentation that I first created in 2007 and have just updated to reflect the current threat of swine H1N1 influenza. This prresentation contains historical information on influenza that you will hopefully find interesting.

The second document is "IT Pandemic Planning Checklist
April 2009. Scott McPherson, author . It is designed to be used both as a planning tool and as a discussion-provoking set of questions to kick around -- and to kick upstairs.

All IT managers, CIOs, CTOs, business owners and families can and should use these two documents to complete their pandemic planning efforts. Share them liberally.

Why the sudden urgency?

After years of refusing to raise the threat level to 4, just yesterday the World Health Organization did just that. It took less than a week for the WHO to make that move and push that button. This new virus is moving that quickly.

In fact, I predict if there is broad evidence that the disease is causing secondary infections at a faster rate, the WHO will raise that level from 4 to 5. This will kick in a whole new range of preparations -- and will raise the level of citizen concern to near panic.

The warning sign of a potential Phase 5 escalation is when we see many, many more human cases who had absolutely nothing to do with Mexico. Didn't go. Didn't know or go to school with anyone who did. And not just one or two. I am talking dozens or hundreds. WHO will not hesitate to pull that trigger.

Woe betide to those who do not have a real panflu plan at that point.

At Phase 5, supermarket shelves will begin to look barren. Supplies of staples and medicines and hand sanitizer will be almost impossible to find. It will be extremely difficult, if not impossible, for you to procure the items that you will need. The public will be in full frenzy, as will the press. It will look like a Publix or Home Depot in Miami 48 hours before a major hurricane makes landfall.

And waiting until Phase 5 is declared and then getting started on developing a pandemic plan will, in all probability, doom your pandemic plan to failure.

A word of caution: If this virus simply fades during the summer, do not automatically assume the virus has burned out. Remember that pandemics move in waves, and it was the second wave in 1918 that was the most lethal.

Then-HHS Secretary Mike Leavitt told Americans in 2006 and 2007 that for every 3 cans of tuna they buy, pick up a fourth can and place it under the bed. Now, with the pandemic threat level raised to unprecedented heights and fresh human cases growing by the hour, that advice is mysteriously missing.

Why? Why was it good policy to tell people to stockpile with no pandemic threat, but that advice is absolutely lacking now?

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Global Swine Flu Marketing Pandemic

Submitted by digitalchris on June 11, 2009 - 7:39 P.M.

Hi folks,

I am wondering whether anyone else out there shares my sceptical viewpoint around swine flu. I can't think of one great reason why the world has been inspired to panic so much around this apart from the grat news it makes. So you've heard the flu will mutate into something much worse? Well how come we never heard that theory about Avian Flu or SARS - which are much bigger threats? And why haven't these flus mutated given it's been years since those scares? Because mutating flu virus's are nowhere near as common as you may believe. google it. Also check out this site I found while researching this thing. It's:

swineflutally.com

pretty amusing and provides some balance in my opinion

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Agree with Scott

Submitted by Lando on April 29, 2009 - 1:39 P.M.

If you are reading this article WITHOUT looking at it from a DRP/BCM/COOP context, of course you are going to consider it 'alarmist'

Why do Risk Assessments? Why bother with possibility/probability issues? Pen tests, disaster simulation drills... Are these actions 'alarmist"? This article was about possible issues, 'what if' scenarios (this is what security people are suppose to do), AND what you should at least keep in mind when preparing for continuous biz operations, and lets not forget that 'Job One' for any security person is the safety of the people.

Reminds me of the Y2K naysayers ("What a joke"... "See? Nothing happened, it was all hype"... etc. Well duhhh.... after millions of dollars spent on thousands of programmers to correct the issue...

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Amen, Lando.

Submitted by Scott McPherson on April 29, 2009 - 3:26 P.M.

You da man. After Y2K, I told USA Today:
"Never have I so staunchly had to defend my success."
Scott

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Panic

Submitted by jawilli65 on April 29, 2009 - 10:46 A.M.

I am all for being prepared, but this article does everything but stay calm. If the public is to do anything, it is the basics of cleanliness. Wash your hands, cover your mouth, etc.etc.... This article is all about panic. Panic is not the way to motivate. It is the way to destroy. And I am one that is looking at this flu as a warning, not a scare. While people in Mexico are dying, they are missing a few key components. The country is dirtier and they do not have the medical assets that the US has. If you want to warn people and tell them what they need to know, please give both sides. People in the US are recovering from this. There has been 1 death from this as of today. Also something to keep in mind, is the fact that the regular flu strain that goes around has killed more than 1,000 people as of this month. What are we to think of this? All I am saying is the media needs to do the right thing in reporting this and give all the information. Not stir people into a frenzy just for news sake.

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History, my friend...

Submitted by Scott McPherson on April 29, 2009 - 3:17 P.M.

To not be prepared is to not know your history.

Do you know which corporations and businesses survived 9/11 in Lower Manhattan? Those who still had their Y2K plans and grabbed the manuals. They used their Y2K plans to reconstitute their systems in the aftermath of 9/11. And the planning process that went into those Y2K plans is what we all use today for DR and COOP, both of which were really emerging art forms prior to Y2K.

So it is with pandemics. We have one staring us in the face right this minute, whether you can wrap your mind around that or not. I don't say so: The WHO says so. And 1918's pandemic killed people in the second wave, not the first. You should take this as a warning, as you said. And you should heed the warning and make plans, be prepared to adapt those plans, and begin setting aside the things you will need if absenteeism forces infrastructure outages and shortages of essential items.

CVS has already run out of face masks corporate-wide. Hand sanitizer is in scarce supply in affected areas. People are acting who have never heard of me. they can sense that they need to prepare. It is instinct. Better to educate than to be ignorant of what needs to be done.

With all due respect, have you even studied this issue? I have spent the last three years of my life learning this issue, all its nuances and all its effects upon society -- and preparing for this very sequence of events. I strongly suggest you get smarter on this topic and realize how unpredictable influenza can be. And that is what we must prepare for: What this virus can become, not necessarily what it is today.

PS. Health care for this event is not rocket science. You do not need state-of-the-art health care to get treated. "The country is dirtier" is an affront to those who live and work in that city. Nor will not stop this virus from mutating if it so desires. it can mutate in Atlanta or Miami or Sheboygan as easily as it can mutate in a "dirty country."

Statistically, you had a better chance of surviving SARS in 2003, believe it or not, if you were taken to a backwoods, "dirty" country hospital. You see, those hospitals lacked air conditioning -- the thing most responsible for the deaths in "modern" areas such as Hong Kong and Toronto.

Neither you nor I nor anyone else on this planet knows what this virus will do next.

What we do know is what we have learned about influenza in our science and in our history. And both texts call out to us to prepare.

Please do so: with restraint, but prepare nonetheless.

Scott

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let's not create widespread panic

Submitted by SH on April 29, 2009 - 3:34 A.M.

After reading your IT Pandemic Presentation I was VERY alarmed and concerned, and ready to close myself up in my house after, of course, clearing my local supermarket's shelves of all water and tuna. But then I went to the CDC and WHO websites to read more, and while it is true that they have raised the threat level to 4, they are not giving such alarming and potentially dangerous advice such as yours.

I agree with creating a disaster recovery plan in an IT environment (this should be in place anyway) but I don't agree with exploiting the current pandemic situation to achieve that objective. If the Average Joe population were to read your column, there would be widespread panic and all hell would break loose. This does more harm than good, Mr. McPherson. You are no better than the media that exploits and propagates disasters, thus creating an epidemic worse than the very one that was trying to be prevented. I do find your article very alarming, just not for the reasons for which you might have hoped.

To answer your question regarding the lack of advice in the midst of a pandemic threat: perhaps we learned something in the past by putting the general population into a state of terror and widespread panic and seeing the result which was worse than the epidemic itself.

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No panic, simply preparedness.

Submitted by Scott McPherson on April 29, 2009 - 8:16 A.M.

I completely dismiss your arguments.

Let me tell you why.

For the past three years, the White House has been telling Americans to prepare for a flu pandemic. Chief among the recommendations was to develop a 2-week supply of food and water and medicines.

Mind you, these statements were coming when there was no clear, in-your-face threat from a novel flu virus.

Now that a novel flu virus is probably in every major state, we hear nothing about preparedness. Only the usual "Stay calm." The equivalent of "Nothing to see here, move along."

That is a terrible risk communications blunder. Organizations need to stay consistent and stay on-message. That is what I am doing, since I have advocated that for three years, and will continue to do so.

No one, save for the Almighty, knows what this virus will do. No one. And you need to be prepared in case this virus mutates now, or decides to go around the world and come back stronger and more lethal.

Most people do not know the significance of the WHO's raising of the pandemic threat level to 4. Let me draw the analogy to Homeland. If Homeland said there was a credible threat to the nation, and they raised the threat level to Orange and told people to get resupplied, no one would question that. I doubt you would question that.

Well, the WHO's raising to Phase 4 was the disease equivalent of going to Orange everywhere, in every sector. It was big.

You need to look at historic pandemics (and smaller epidemics such as 1946 and 1951) and see what this disease is capable of.

Every American should have an all-hazards kit that can sustain them and their families in the event of a disaster. The contents of that kit are identical to the pandemic kit, save for bandages and similar first-aid supplies.

That is not being alarmist; that is called being prepared. If you felt a rush to clear out supermarket shelves, it is you who overreacted, not I.

Scott

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Scott's Checklists and Comments

Submitted by cpp, cissp on April 29, 2009 - 6:41 P.M.

Good checklist and presentation. About two years ago, I did a lot of research and wrote an article on this subject from a business continuity and security perspective. There are a couple things missing from your checklist.

Your corporate security people need to be involved in the planning too.Both your people and your facilities can face additional risks during a pandemic. You can expect 30 percent of your security force to be absent too and the same percent will apply to your local police. Even those officers available may be used only for life threatening assignments, not the protection of property. How do you plan to protect your assets with fewer security and police officers? As Scott has suggested earlier, you need to set your priorities. Worry about your data center, labs, important manufacturing sites, and key
office buildings.

A word of caution on working from home. It only works if you do it on a regular basis, preferably once a week or every two weeks at a minimum. Otherwise, you forget how to do things, how things work, etc. Been there and done it! Plus, the Help Desk may not be available.

Good luck if you don't have a pandemic plan for your company and your family. It takes months to develop one for any mid-size or larger business.

In the final analysis, your company may consider the option of simply shutting down on a temporary basis during the height of a pandemic. If not prepared, you may have no other option.

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Thanks, cpp.

Submitted by Scott McPherson on April 29, 2009 - 10:34 P.M.

My earlier pandemic presentations (from 2006 and 2007) covered the entire threat to all of society's functions (and are all available on the CIO Council's Website). But they are also avian-oriented and so I wanted to remove most of the avian references, insert a few swine references, and ditch the societal impacts in an effort to not freak everyone out.

As you can read from a couple of the comments, it's probably a good idea that I did that!

But you are absolutely spot-on. They need to be addressed and thought about.

Thank you for the kind words,
Scott

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