A month later, why Zune is headed to failure

Microsoft says that, in the aftermath of mixed (at best) reviews and mediocre sales, it will increase Zune's marketing budget and focus on the device's wireless music sharing capabilities. That's why I'm starting to think Zune could fail: Microsoft is putting money into marketing when it needs to focus on creating a compelling experience.

Watch Microsoft's Zune ads for three seconds and it's clear the company is marketing directly to the 20-to-30 crowd of lovers of independent music. In product shots, it even goes so far as to show the Zune tuned into an indie music station in Seattle, the epicenter of Indie music.

From a marketing perspective, this is a good group to target: They love music and technology and, as young professionals, they have money. Unfortunately for Microsoft, they're also smart enough to know when a giant company is pandering to them. Also, focusing on Zune's wireless music transfer capabilities is nonsensical. Microsoft is obviously trying to capitalize on the social networking that has made sites like MySpace and YouTube so successful.

There are a few small difference, though. First, most people have a desktop PC for using social networking sites while there are only -- what? -- 12 or 20 Zunes out in the world for sharing music. Plus, the feature itself is ridiculous, a perfect example of what happens when the paranoid recording industry teams with a geeky company like Microsoft that doesn't really connect with how people live today. So if you have a Zune and I have a Zune, we can beam music to each other, which we can listen to three times before having to pay for it. Who cares?

Hey, Microsoft: How about making Zune's built-in Wi-Fi truly useful for connecting directly to Zune Marketplace and for transferring music from my desktop? And how about slimming down the device so it is more attractive to hold? And, as long as you're at it, if you lower the price a bit to undercut iPod, you'll start having a device that a few people will care about.

I've said before that Microsoft is using its time-tested "version 1.0" strategy with Zune -- start slow and wear down the competition over a period of years. But this time, there's no compelling reason down the road for this strategy to work with Zune as there was, say, with Microsoft Office, which Microsoft forced PC vendors to bundle with new desktop computers. And Microsoft's ham-handed marketing is a bit like General Motors trying to convince car buyers it's the hippest carmaker around. Sure, there are always a few chumps out there, but not as many as companies like Microsoft need. A better strategy would be to actually make the product attractive. Microsoft says it will be improving Zune. They'd better get at it soon.