Whoa! What a surprise! Nobody wants mobile TV

Mobile TV is one of those goofy ideas that the cellular industry has been clinging to as a way to increase profits. But it was hardly a surprise that a new survey found little enthusiasm for mobile TV.

The reasons that mobile TV won't be a huge hit have to do both with the nature of being mobile and with how the cellular operators are handling it. Television, by its nature, isn't a mobile activity for most users. A mobile activity must abet the act of being mobile and watching TV is, by definition, a sedentary act. That means the primary fans of mobile TV are likely to be commuters and road warriors who must sit still for periods of time.

But even then, many will prefer to work on their laptops if access is available or -- egads! -- read one of those old-fashioned paper-based books. And there's one other problem: The screen is small, small, small and, as a result, hard to watch for long periods, particularly if you're older than, say 18.

Then, there are significant problems with the way the cellular operators are handling mobile TV. The best word I can find to describe it is "greed." The carriers are desperate to for payback on the expensive 3G systems they've been deploying in the last few years. To do that, they've far overpriced their 3G access. Sixty bucks a month is justified for some users, without doubt, but is far too expensive for mainstream users. And, for those who don't want a full data plan, the cellular operators are offering things like music and video for those willing to pay for it. Or, perhaps, overpay is a better word.

AT&T/Cingular actually has it right -- they're using music (and music devices like iPhone) to attract new customers and not generate revenue in its own right. But Sprint's and Verizon's music efforts are flopping because they vastly misunderstand the attractiveness of downloading music over-the-air. Sure, it would be nice if it was easy and cheap, but most people will prefer to download tunes to their PC for a buck than to pay more than twice that amount to download a song to their phone.

The same misunderstanding of customer desires is obvious in the carriers' walled-garden approach to content. They not only want to lure people into their data plans by providing videos and other items, they want a hefty slice of the profits from those items. In fact, they're double-dipping, charging both the content provider and the end user. This same approach, which is so obviously more for the benefit of the cellular operators than their customers, is at work with mobile TV, which is yet another big reason it will fail.

Don't get me wrong -- I don't think mobile TV will be a total flop. As I mentioned, there are some who will like it. I know there have been a few times that I'd have paid to watch a specific program. But it'll eventually be like camera phones, available widely but used only on relatively sporadic occasions. And even then, it'll only be used if it's either free or you can pay by the program -- monthly fees just won't cut it. In the end, don't be surprised in the future if, despite the hype from cellular carriers, mobile TV turns out to be much ado about nothing.