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IT Blogwatch

A Daily Digest of IT Blogs from Richi Jennings

AT&T's iPhone price plans provoke panic or praise (and crazy theremin)

Welcome to Wednesday's IT Blogwatch: in which AT&T reveals how much you're going to have to pay per month for that iPhone you've been lusting after. Not to mention a crazy-good theremin cover...

Gregg Keizer reports :

Apple Inc. and iPhone partner AT&T Inc. announced three new service plans specifically for the iPhone, all with unlimited data, that range from $60 to $100 a month. iPhone owners, however, will be able to choose from any standard AT&T plan.
...
Apple also said today that iPhone buyers will be able to activate the device using its popular iTunes program on either Macs or Windows PCs, a move that should cut down on the time people spend in stores this weekend ... buyers must have an iTunes account -- which in turn requires a major credit card -- as well as a valid Social Security number; the latter is an AT&T requirement and used as part of its credit check process. After the iPhone is activated, iTunes will synchronize audio and video content on the Mac or PC with the phone, as well as import phone numbers and other contact information, calendars, e-mail accounts and browser bookmarks to the iPhone.
...
The iPhone goes on sale Friday, June 29, at 6:00 p.m. local time, for $499 (4GB model) and $599 (8GB), at AT&T and Apple retail stores. Apple's online store will also be selling the phone beginning Friday.

Bert Latamore muses:

Phone sales, particularly for high-end phones such as the iPhone, are closely tied to contract renewals. This means that regardless of the hype, the immediate potential audience for the iPhone is confined to people who are:

  1. Existing AT&T subscribers or are nearing the end of their present contracts and are willing to switch to AT&T; and
  2. Willing to spend $500 up front on a high-end phone (about $2,000 total over the length of the two-year contract AT&T requires with the iPhone) despite the discounts all services offer on other phones, including competing smart phones ...

So while the iPhone may generate lines at AT&T stores Friday morning, many of the people in those lines may find the package beyond their budgets. And some of those who do sign up may find themselves with serious sticker shock.
...
Ultimately the iPhone’s success will depend on its ability to attract a market of new smart phone users. The iPhone's applicability as a corporate device -- providing mobile access to email, corporate IM and enterprise applications -- remains to be seen. However, Apple and AT&T would have to offer significant discounts to compete against Research in Motion and other established smart phone suppliers in the corporate market.

Cynthia Brumfield has, "An embarassing confession to make":

I pay a huge amount of money to Verizon Wireless every month and I’m not exactly sure what I’m paying for or even how to read my bill. I know I’m not alone, but, hey, I’m in this business and I should be able to grasp a lousy mobile phone bill.

When I got hit with the first nauseating bill, I called Verizon Wireless to have someone explain to me how the tally got so high. I’m ashamed to admit that I didn’t understand the explanation either, but did grasp that if I upgraded to a more costly monthly plan, I’d save money (how’s that for a mind-bending paradox?) ... Beats me. I do know that I feel like an idiot when it comes to my wireless bill ... The iPhone itself may be a revolutionary force in personal electronics, but it seems to me that the iPhone rate plan could be an even more important revolutionary force in mobile service billing.

Yet another announcement made by Apple and AT&T this morning propels the iPhone to some level of consumer nirvana never conceived of before. The iPhone can be activated at home using iTunes. No more standing around for 90 minutes in cramped retail stores amid unhappy and oftentimes psychotic customers, not to mention surly and disgruntled employees.

Vince Veneziani agrees:

Now normally I’d say this would be an annoying process that Apple should have dumped on AT&T, though when you think about it, the iPhone is also a music and video player as well, so it makes perfect sense for you to sync it with iTunes. Your videos of “Lost” and “Grey’s Anatomy” are all there, along with all those Billy Idol albums you ripped last week. Surely you want them all on your new, shiny iPhone.

Leander Kahney digs deeper:

Apple's not going to ruin ... the ritual unboxing ... experience by having some ham-fisted, pimply cell-phone salesman open the box for you. Instead, Allen predicts, the buyer will have the iPhone box quickly scanned at the store. When they get home, they'll synchronize the phone with their computer, and the registration process will take place through iTunes.

Customers will choose their AT&T voice and data plans through iTunes, while iTunes is transferring songs and video files to the iPhone (and iSync or Outlook is copying contacts and calendars). The phone will be activated remotely over the cell network.

Michael Parekh warns one to gird one's loins:

One does need to get mentally ready for the financial commitment involved here ... A one-year AT&T contract doesn't seem to be an option.  It's two-years or nothing.  So above the $500 or $600 the user pays for a 4Gb or an 8GB model, s/he is committing anything $1440, $1920, or $2400 for the two years ... And for the top-tier $100 plan?  You don't get unlimited voice or SMS text messages.  What a deal.
...
Wonder how long Apple will wait before unveiling new video iPod models with the screen and touch features of the iPhone sans the phone features. I'll start the pool with a guess of three months, with a new line-up in time for the holiday season.  Any other takers?

Kevin Tofel compares and contrasts:

From a pricing standpoint, the cost is basically included in the plans. I tried to do a direct comparison to the other major GSM provider here (T-Mobile) and the closest plan match is the 1000-minute plan of T-Mo at $59.99 and the AT&T 900-minute plan at $79.99. AT&T does include rollover minutes, while T-Mo offers the MyFaves...there's a few differences like that, so it's not a one-to-one. Adding a data plan to the T-Mobile account bumps you up $30, or $10 more than the AT&T plan, but it includes the T-Mobile Hotspot plan for WiFi as well as usage of the EDGE service. The AT&T plan also includes 200 TXT messages, where the T-Mobile plan doesn't.

Essentially, there's not much cost difference at first glance; what's more interesting is the way the plans are presented. Apple's iPhone is designed to be used on the web and they're calling attention to that fact by including the unlimited data. It's not thrown in as an afterthought service....interesting. Also worth noting for existing customers: you'll need to re-up for a new two-year contract to "activate iPhone features, including iPod functions". Looks like there's no way around the cellular servitude to AT&T through 2009 if you want an iPhone now.

Erica Sadun thinks it, "Stinks":

We seem to have an answer to one of our biggest questions: Can you buy an iPhone and just use the built in WiFi and iPod features? Apparently not.
...
It just seems unnecessary and cruel. TUAW gives Apple's "Minimum new 2-year wireless service plan and activation fee required to activate iPhone features including iPod" a big old hometown raspberry. Boo!

To which Steve Jobs has this succinct retort:

No bitching you cheap bastards.

Buffer overflow:

Around the Net

Around Computerworld

Previously in IT Blogwatch

And finally... Dvorak-dot-org-slash-blog: Theremin Cover of Gnarls Barkley’s Crazy

Richi Jennings is an independent technology and marketing consultant, specializing in email, blogging, Linux, and computer security. A 20 year, cross-functional IT veteran, he is also an analyst at Ferris Research. Contact Richi at blogwatch@richi.co.uk.

What People Are Saying

Why is everyone so upset at

Why is everyone so upset at the price and contract. At&t is offering a great deal, a plan that includes unlimited web and emails. I was with sprint, I downloaded three song off the internet, the price from the sprint store was 3 songs for 4.99$. When I got my bill, they charges me $150.00 for downloading the songs. I had to pay it after hours of disputing it. The data plane for the iphone are not so bad, its unlimited, and reasonable minutes and text. You can customize it to add more text, or minutes if you need them. You get youtube and internet in the plan. once you get past the price of the phone, youll love it. in the future everyone will have one, just like how computers and cell phones have eveolved. My plan with sprint right now is a family plan of 550 minutes, shared between two phones for 69$, they have renewed my contract twice, I am goin on the 5 years, and they wont let me leave, without paying them 400$ termination. So I have to pay this on top of the price of two iphones, but I think it will save money in the long run, becasue they phone is versatile.

thanks JAY G. great

thanks JAY G. great article... sounds like a great phone for teens/tweeners with discretionary spending money to WASTE, but until the cost of the phone drops next year to $250/400 and resellers start giving rebates non AT&T customers are largely going to AVOID this cash cow. I love the phone but it ain't worth it - I'll get a krzr that has great battery life and although I want Tmobile, AT&T is what will be best for my contact list.

ps - I've always espoused apple stock, despite not having stock, but told my friends to buy it - I advise a sell - it's going to slow down for a few months, maybe buy it after it drops $20 in the next 90 days. (just a guess)

In response to kevin tofel.

In response to kevin tofel. Kevin T-Mobile offers 1000 minutes unlimited n&w free nat'l long dist no roaming for $39.99 currently $240 dollars less anually then you quoted. To add on text it's 400 instead of 200 text for $4.99. (also there are cheaper data plans than the total internet add on that you vaguely refer to. such as 19.99 blackberry connect etc) T-Mobile also has better customer care than AT&T does ( I worked for both carriers) T-Mobile doesn't bill a month ahead and has a policy of backbilling to upset cost of overeages. T-Mobile doesn't charge an upgrade fee when you switch phones. They also don't require anything other than a $39.99 or higher plan to receive a rebate on a phone. When I worked at AT&T for example if you sold a Blackberry Pearl and the customer wanted a rebate they had to sign up for the Blackberry Unlimited Plan to get it. There will be plenty of phones that will hit the US within the next 6 months to combat the Iphone. Ie THE htC shift, the LG Prada Phone etc.

I will cancel my current 5

I will cancel my current 5 lines contract with AT&T and switch over to Verizon. What it that? It's a phone ... if you pay the phone you should be free to chose any plan you like!

The two year costs for the

The two year costs for the AT&T/iPhone plan are competitive with the costs for any other smartphone and any other carrier. The unlimited data plan for AT&T is about half what other carriers cost. If you want a smartphone...it costs...so get over it.

I have a basic plan with AT&T, and it not only has unlimited free nights and weekends, but rollover minutes and free calls anytime to other AT&T subscribers. Minutes are not a problem.

Why aren't the critics comparing apples to apples (sic)?

To Erica Sadun "It

To Erica Sadun "It Stinks"

Stop complaining and buy a damn iPod you idiot. Why would you buy a $500-600 iPhone and all you basically want to use is the iPod. What sense does that make?

If you like the iPhone than buy it, if you don't than your decision is clear don't buy it and shut up. It's obviously not for you!

Judging by today’s

Judging by today’s selloff, I think potential customers are starting to realize how expensive the iPhone will be. If you sign the mid-range $99.99/mo service plan after purchasing the 8GB iPhone model, that alone will set you back $3000 during the two-year contract (without any accessories)!

Here’s a few other potential hurdles that could prevent the iPhone from exceeding its already lofty expectations:

* You must be an AT&T customer to use the iPhone. With a market share of 20%, that means 80% of wireless customers must cancel their current contracts to sign with AT&T. Being a Sprint customer, I would have to pay a $175 cancellation on top of the $3000 price tag for the iPhone. AT&T’s exclusive contract runs through 2009.
* Only 4 & 8GB of hard drive space? My tiny video iPod holds 30 GB for less than $200.
* Recent surveys have shown that the majority of IT departments will not even consider the iPhone due to its PC incompatibilities & exclusive AT&T contract. That will dampen business spending & all but eliminate demand for the higher-tier contracts.

This is the ultimate “sell the news” scenario. On Jan 9th 2007, Steve Jobs announced the iPhone at the Macworld Conference & Expo. The stock has since been on fire rising 50% to $125, adding $30 billion to the company's market capitalization. Will the iPhone really hold that much value for Apple? This huge runup comes after a fantastic finish to 2006 after Apple’s stock bottomed out at $50 in October. Thus, nearly everyone holding Apple is sitting on huge gains.

Expect an Apple selloff on Friday when the iPhone is finally released. 3 similar mini-selloffs have occurred during this recent runup:

* June 26th: Apple announces 6 AT&T service plans for the iPhone. The stock drops 3% on investor concerns over the high prices.
* June 11th: Steve Jobs shows off the iPhone at Apple’s World Wide Developer's Conference. The stock falls 5% after investors saw no “surprises”.
* March 20th: Apple beats 4th quarter analyst earnings & revenue estimates. The stock falls on profit taking.

Apple’s recent success has created impossible expectations. With all the mega-hype already priced into the stock, just meeting expectations will create a selloff. I plan to sell tomorrow and buy back in a couple months. Longer-term investors need not worry because the future looks bright with Macs gaining market share & the iPods continuing their dominant foothold on the music industry.