PC: RIP, at least in Japan (and Moo!)

It's IT Blogwatch: in which we ponder the death of the PC, at least in Japan. Not to mention cows abducted by UFOs...

Konichiwa, Hiroko Tabuchi:

The PC's role in Japanese homes is diminishing, as its once-awesome monopoly on processing power is encroached by gadgets such as smart phones that act like pocket-size computers, advanced Internet-connected game consoles, and digital video recorders with terabytes of memory ... Japan's PC market is already shrinking, leading analysts to wonder whether Japan will become the first major market to see a decline in personal computer use some 25 years after it revolutionized household electronics — and whether this could be the picture of things to come in other countries. [more]

Nick Farrell adds:

PC sales in Japan have fallen for the fifth quarter leading the bean counters IDC to predict the end of the PC. IDC analysts have stroked their beards and wondered if Japan will become the first major market to see a decline in personal computer use ... the trend shows no signs of letting up with big names like NEC and Sony's PC sales headed for such a loud belly flop that it can be heard in the changing rooms. [more]

Paul McNamara feels the buzz:

Could it be that we will have seen the birth, rise to dominance and decline into dotage of the personal computer all within little more than a generation? ... I’m thinking predictions of the PC’s demise may be premature: It’s just that I can’t see me doing this job on a cell phone or game console. [more]

Kathryn Vercillo writes real words:

Japan is one of the countries that eyes often turn to when considering the future trends of technology ... However it may be jumping the gun to think that the same thing will happen in the United States. The trend in Japan seems to be to convert all Internet to small mobile devices while moving video-viewing over to large flat screen televisions. With the heavy importance placed on watching video online right now, it’s unlikely that Americans are going to be switching back to home TVs anytime soon. [more]

But Douglas A. McIntyre disagrees:

There is no reason that this trend will not move to the US. Almost 200 million people have accounts with AT&T (T) Wireless, Verizon Wireless, Sprint (S), or T-Mobile. High-end phones from Apple, Motorola (MOT), Nokia (NOK) and Samsung are using 3G networks and better processors to run photos, video, data, and music downloads ... With handset sales running over one billion a year and PC retail prices as a potential barrier to purchases in countries like China and India, look for the $200 smartphone to begin to steal sales from the PC in earnest over the next two or three years. [more]

And Costa Tsiokos is also skeptical:

Compact mobile computing devices caught on in Japan early because they always were much less expensive than PCs; and they took up a lot less space, which jibed with smaller living quarters in Japan in general. I’m thinking that might have more to do with this current sales decline. [more]

Anja Merret chats to her generation, and says, "I told you so":

It comes just a few days after a debate with some friends found us mulling over the same issue. My idea that the life of the PC was limited and that the computer as we know it was on its way out, was shot down in flames ... more than 50 percent of Japanese send e-mail and browse the internet from their mobile devices. So what is left for the computer then. So far it seems that it is back to office applications and possibly for the odd person who is into video editing and serious photo image manipulation that requires high computing powers ... Standing in a crowded commuter train for an hour’s trip home, you are not going to be able to fish the laptop out of the backpack ... Japan’s fastest [growing] social networking site, Mobagay Town, is designed exclusively for mobile phones. Doesn’t that say something about what gadget the consumer is using? [more]

Quentin Stafford-Fraser is sensational:

I have always looked forward to living in a post-PC world. The personal computer as we normally picture it has been such a successful model over the last quarter of a century that it has stifled quite a lot of innovation because many ideas, which might otherwise have exciting new tangible forms, are easier just to do on a PC. But as PCs become less of a focus, we should see new types of interaction becoming more common ... when you don’t notice them any more ... the most frequently-cited example of this - highlighted by Don Norman - is the electric motor. There was a time when you could buy a ‘household electric motor’ and a range of accessories which would allow you to use it as a blender one minute, and a vacuum cleaner the next. But you know electric motors have become really significant as a technology when you start thinking of a washing machine as a washing machine, and a drill as a drill. [more]

Jason M. Adams ponders:

Does this spell trouble for major PC manufacturers like Dell, HP, and so on? Nope. Countries that haven’t seen PCs before are seeing sales increase enormously. So the markets are shifting. I hope as the US market begins to transition away from the multipurpose all-in-one PC, we’ll begin to see some sort of device for the power-user/programmer begin to emerge. [more]

And finally...

• More animated lunacy from the twisted mind of Cyriak Harris
  

Buffer overflow:

• Jon Udell: Mom, it's not your fault
• 9 to 5 Mac: Thoughts on Wireless Access
• Timothy M. O'Brien: Why Maven?
• Paul McNamara: Cell jamming a simple call for justice
• Keith Combs: Windows Server 2008 Core screencast series
• Actual PC Problems with Solutions: Handheld Supercomputers in a Decade?
• Stealthy Tech: Cell Phone Jammers: Finnaly, a little peace

Other Computerworld bloggers:

• Ian Lamont: The gaming world meets the corporate world: Generation G grows up
• Bert Latamore: The PDA Guerilla: Enter the UPC
• Robert L. Mitchell: Server to user: Sorry, no VoIP for you.
• Shark Tank: Spam, canned
• Douglas Schweitzer: It's all about that data !
• Shark Bait: Speakers for the Deaf

Richi Jennings is an independent analyst/adviser/consultant, specializing in blogging, email, and spam. A 20 year, cross-functional IT veteran, he is also an analyst at Ferris Research. You too can pretend to be Richi's friend on Facebook, or just use boring old email: blogwatch@richi.co.uk. Go seicho arigato gozaimas.

Previously in IT Blogwatch:

• $199 PC from Google/Everex at Wal-Mart (and bizarre bikes)
• Mac OS X scares security spods (and WCC FTW)
• Facebook vs. OpenSocial: seconds out, round one (and 1989 razor cheese)