OK, if not a recession, at least a 'slowdown' in 2008

I've been pointing to early signs we're headed for an economic recession in 2008, which is, of course, bad news for IT capital spending. Well, maybe it won't meet the economists' textbook definition of a recession, but it won't be much fun, either.

Here's the slightly more optimistic view:

Despite a slumping housing market, rising oil prices, flat auto sales, a weak U.S. dollar and waning consumer confidence, America's economy will not slip into recession, say University of Michigan economists.

Still, a mild economic slowdown seems likely in the first half of 2008, followed by a rebound in the second half.

A survey of more than 1,000 world economists by the International Chamber of Commerce concluded:

The global economy is expected to lose momentum in the last quarter of the year in all major regions, as predictions for the existing quarter and the coming six months are significantly revised downwards, according to the latest ICC / Ifo World Economic Survey....

"The global economic expansion is softening," said Hans-Werner Sinn, President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich. "The economic outlook for the coming six months deteriorated, and has become cautious."

The economic climate indicator dropped most in North America, especially in the US, with a larger majority of economists than in the previous survey saying they see a major risk of a US recession ahead. The economic climate outlook also deteriorated in Europe, with the least favorable perspective recorded for France. Economists only slightly downgraded their expectations for Asia.

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Related:
I'm hearing the dreaded 'R word'
IT budgets: Troubling signs for 2008
Why CIOs should monitor economic trends