Apple's September 12 iPhone will send competing devices off to landfill

September 05, 2012 7:22 AM EDT

Apple [AAPL] has confirmed “it’s almost here” with a special launch event on September 12, which we all anticipate will be for the iPhone 5. Meanwhile, it seems every competitor under the sun is attempting to beat the company to the punch with their own product introductions, but they’re wasting their time -- no one’s going to pay too much attention to them.

[ABOVE: Allegedly a world exclusive, this fabricated video clip claims to show you the new iPhone 5. I don’t buy it.]

Traffic jam or roadkill?

Take a look at this report from Computerworld’s Android-focused blogger, JR Raphael. He notes product recent and looming product launches from Samsung, LG, Sony, HTC, Motorola, Nokia et al, and writes:

“Combine all of that with the pile-up of launches we saw last week, [he names  few names]. and a bunch of products most of us have already forgotten -- and it’s hard to describe this as anything but a massive tech launch traffic jam.”

This traffic jam proves my regular claim that Android device makers aren’t just in stiff competition with Apple, but with each other. And by launching new flagship devices at more or less the same time they’re doing nothing for themselves, hurting each other, and aren’t denting Apple one little bit.

Competitors are wasting their time by launching their devices so close the introduction of the new iPhone. Apple will suck the media oxygen out of the room with its release, while others will inevitably be forced to share what little attention/interest is left beyond that of more tech-obsessed consumers. Most consumers aren’t tech-obsessives, but tech-users. 

Lack of belief

The other unfortunate sub-text greeting this wave of me-too launches is perceptual. 

If these vendors had something great to sell then they’d play the game a more sensible way: if they were fully confident in their offerings they’d wait until Apple showed its hand before revealing their new devices. The fact that they lack the confidence to do so strongly suggests they already know their new products just don’t compete.

It’s all quite self-destructive really. By choosing to launch products at the same time as Cupertino, competitors may be squandering resources in order to show they’re up for the fight, but they aren’t displaying any strategic sense whatsoever.

A strategic approach would have seen new devices introduced approximately five months ago, in order to exploit the pre-iPhone release slump in Apple device sales; if they’d come to market then with products that delivered on what we expect from the future iPhone, they might have managed to create an impact. Alternatively they introduce new devices in the early part of 2013, when things are quiet.

Headed to landfill

As it is, with products at best only similar to that offered by Apple next week, makers of alternative smartphones are effectively marching their new wares off to join the tablets they introduced last year in landfill.

So here’s what’s really going to happen to the new product introductions in the coming weeks:

  • A range of products from a variety of manufacturers hit market. 
  • Millions will be spent launching these devices, some might even have memorable names. 
  • All these things will look and behave more or less alike. 
  • Nokia’s Windows 8 phones will be the most interesting, because they run a new OS. 
  • In six months time few will remember nearly all of these devices.
  • Some manufacturers will next year merge with others.
  • They’ll abandon those devices which don’t gain traction and prepare to launch new ones in mid-2013 which match new features introduced on Apple Wednesday next week.
  • (Speculation: Mid-2013 could then be a good time to launch a second breed of iPhone).

Dare to be different

Who is standing up against this blatant lack of vision? Just one firm I think we’ll be talking about a lot more in a few months time: RIM. Certainly I recognize that RIM is currently dying, but it has bravely set itself up for criticism by choosing not to join the pre-Christmas launch stampede in order to introduce its new BlackBerry 10 OS in the clean window of early next year. When it has a chance of standing out.  

RIM’s advantages are that unlike most manufacturers with the exception of Apple it makes both the device and the software that runs it. The company is also fighting for its life, which must surely focus the mind. Assuming RIM does come up with something impressive, then where 2012 was defined as a two-horse race between Apple and Android, 2013 could see three (or four, including Microsoft) steeds hit the smartphone track.

The next few days will see the introduction of a range of products most of which most will soon be forgotten. Not just a waste of effort, but a waste of time.

The winners will be those who can display a few iotas of originality. I’d observe that introducing new products just because Apple intends launching its own isn’t originality, it’s suicide. We're likely to see evidence to substantiate this claim in a few months time, when the market share reports confirm these expectations.

What do you think?

Got a story? Drop me a line via Twitter or in comments below and let me know. I'd like it if you chose to follow me on Twitter so I can let you know when these items are published here first on Computerworld.

Also read: