The end of Wi-Fi hotspots? Dream on

It was a bold prediction: The growth of mobile broadband will make Wi-Fi hotspots obsolete.  One can only hope that prediction comes true, but it won't happen for a long time, if at all.

The prediction came from an executive from Ericsson, which, not surprisingly, makes infrastructure equipment for 3G and, eventually, 4G mobile broadband access.  And he has a point: Ubiquitous, inexpensive mobile broadband is a wonderful dream.  And, if it happens, it will undoubtedly displace Wi-Fi hotspots.  But this is an issue of "if," not when.

Currently, cellular operators are having some success selling 3G access to laptop-toting road warriors.  But the reality is that 3G is relatively slow and coverage isn't reliable.  Even in cities blanketed with 3G access, indoor reception remains problematic.  

In fact, cellular operators in the U.S. are far more interested in using 3G for downloading ringtones and other revenue-generating nonsense to phones than providing serious Internet access.  Otherwise, why would they charge $60 a month for business access and cap downloads at 5GB?

Next-generation mobile broadband technologies like mobile WiMax and, some day, LTE, will be faster than current-generation 3G.  And, if Sprint ever gets its WiMax network off the ground, it promises to be cheaper than 3G.

But that's a huge "if."  Sprint is staggering and may not have the wherewithal or nerve to launch its nationwide network.  And, in the U.S., Sprint owns the lion's share of the spectrum that could be used for a WiMax network, at least until the results of the 700Mhz wireless spectrum auction are known.

Even then, the winner of the auction likely will be Verizon or AT&T, and they have shown no desire to develop fast, open, reasonably-priced networks.  Rather, these companies have a monopoly mentality toward access and don't understand that people want open, reasonably-priced access.

And, for now, mobile WiMax has no competition.  The primary technology rival to mobile WiMax is emerging as LTE, but even optimists don't expect LTE to be available until at least 2011.  Bottom line: Wi-Fi hotspots are easy to find, they're usually fast, reliable and increasingly secure.  Given the technical limitations of current 3G technology and the business limitations of future mobile broadband providers, the role of hotspots is unlikely to diminish for years, if at all.