The Microsoft/Facebook/Yahoo conspiracy

Microsoft + Facebook + Yahoo = end of the Web as we know it. So says Robert Scoble in his blog today. I'm not sure I agree.

According to Scoble, Microsoft's plans to buy both Yahoo and Facebook ..."changed the whole argument of Facebook vs. Google to one of Microsoft vs. the Web."

Scoble's argument: Facebook content remains walled off from Google - and the rest of the world. It is a closed system. With Facebook in the stable, Microsoft's Yahoo's search aquisition will have access to "huge swaths" of the Web that Google can't index. "Google is locked out of the Web that soon will be owned by Microsoft. We will never get an open Web back if these two deals happen."

What makes the post even more interesting is Scoble's background as a technical evangelist for Microsoft.

Scoble's insight into Microsoft's soul notwithstanding, I'm a little dubious about this argument. While the idea makes a great conspiracy theory, it's unclear to me just how huge of a swath of the Internet Microsoft would hold. And even if it could capture and control a large portion of Internet content, how will it keep those walls up in a world where walls are coming down everywhere else?

Rather, I think I might agree more with Preston Gralla's assessment of Microsoft's acquisition strategy: Its a "short-term solution to a long-range problem, and one that won't work."

Microsoft can control Web sites and the associated content but the last time I looked it was having a difficult time controlling its own markets, let alone search. And it has no control at all over users. Users of sites such as Facebook create that content and they are notoriously fickle. Microsoft can try to lock in those users, but that doesn't work on the Web as well as it does with licensed software. If users don't like what they see they'll go elsewhere.

I don't buy it.