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Seth Weintraub

Apple Ink

When data doesn't support the hypothesis...

2 comments

TAGS:Apple, Vista, Windows
IT TOPICS:Macintosh & Apple, Mobile & Wireless, Personal Technology

Everyone knows I am a big Apple fan and when there is good Apple news, I love to talk about it. This weekend's Forrester report, entitled: "Corporate Desktop Operating System Trends, Q4 2007 Through Q2 2008: Windows Vista Deployments Are Finally Ramping Up, While Mac Continues Its Slow March on the Enterprise." (succinct huh?), seems to say that Apple is making slow but positive progress in the Enterprise. Unfortunately, the published numbers don't reflect that title.

Eweek picked it up as did some of my other favorite blogs who followed the Eweek author's take on the report. I am not sure anyone really read the report (including the author!) because over the last month, Apple's enterprise numbers fell 10% from 5% to 4.5% marketshare. Meanwhile Windows was at its second highest point since 2007. (see below)

This report would have only been good for Apple if reported at the end of May when Apple peaked. Reporting this now as a positive for Apple is like reporting that MacAuthor being forced out of the Philippines is a victory - even if in the end it is just a setback. Setbacks aren't good things.

Data Copyright Forrester Research

So how does this get spun into positive Macintosh news? I am not sure. One could look at the long term numbers -- which are available two months ago. Apple has gained .3% marketshare since Dec 2007. That's better than Linux. Linux went from 1.8% marketshare in January to 3.5% in February then down to .5% in March. This roller coaster ride makes the data sources seem a bit questionable...

I guess it supports the old saying that statistics are wrong 98% of the time.

Oh, and the good news is that Changewave also put out a study saying:

A survey of more than 4,400 people between August 4 and August 12 conducted by RBC Capital Markets and ChangeWave Research showed that 34% plan to buy a Mac laptop in the next 90 days, compared with 31% in May. Those planning to buy a Mac desktop rose to 30% from 27%. Meanwhile, 81% of those who recently bought an Apple product in the past 90 days were “very satisfied,” while only 58% Dell Inc. buyers and 55% Hewlett-Packard Co. buyers said the same.

So statistically, it was a dead even day for Apple stats.

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Year to year

Submitted by Nate Bird on August 26, 2008 - 12:24 P.M.

The statistic they don't show is what are the year over year numbers. Then you start to see trends. However, just because the numbers drop a couple % points doesn't mean anything. You said so yourself. The numbers fluctuate so much that the only certain data is the trend and that chart doesn't give us enough data to conclude anything. I bet the margin of error is high enough it doesn't actually conclude anything.

So you are right and wrong. Positive news for Apple? I don't think so… Lies about Apple making inroads? Probably not, but there really isn't any evidence either way. Data, it is about the amount of data…

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The TREND is the slow march, not the momentary number

Submitted by Scott Spinola on August 26, 2008 - 9:39 A.M.

The trend in the chart appearing in this article confirms the conclusion that Apple is on a "slow march" on the enterprise. The June figure of 4.5% is higher than in any other month except the one immediately preceding it.

Mr. Weintraub's opinion represents a "hole in the fence" analysis. Looking through a hole in the fence at the right fielder in a baseball game, one could assume that baseball consists of one guy standing around for minutes at a time, occasionally chasing a ball and throwing it, then standing around again before he runs out of sight and is replaced by some other guy in a different uniform who does the same thing. Not very exciting. You need to see the whole field to realize where that player fits into the wider game.

Apple is indeed making "slow but positive progress," even if this month showed a decline. The trend over the nine months represented in this chart is up (nearly a full percentage point over nine months- a 25% gain).

Baseball games are best understood seeing the whole field and marches are viewed over time, not step by step.

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