When data doesn't support the hypothesis...

August 25, 2008 12:39 PM EDT

Everyone knows I am a big Apple fan and when there is good Apple news, I love to talk about it. This weekend's Forrester report, entitled: "Corporate Desktop Operating System Trends, Q4 2007 Through Q2 2008: Windows Vista Deployments Are Finally Ramping Up, While Mac Continues Its Slow March on the Enterprise." (succinct huh?), seems to say that Apple is making slow but positive progress in the Enterprise. Unfortunately, the published numbers don't reflect that title.

Eweek picked it up as did some of my other favorite blogs who followed the Eweek author's take on the report. I am not sure anyone really read the report (including the author!) because over the last month, Apple's enterprise numbers fell 10% from 5% to 4.5% marketshare. Meanwhile Windows was at its second highest point since 2007. (see below)

This report would have only been good for Apple if reported at the end of May when Apple peaked. Reporting this now as a positive for Apple is like reporting that MacAuthor being forced out of the Philippines is a victory - even if in the end it is just a setback. Setbacks aren't good things.

Data Copyright Forrester Research

So how does this get spun into positive Macintosh news? I am not sure. One could look at the long term numbers -- which are available two months ago. Apple has gained .3% marketshare since Dec 2007. That's better than Linux. Linux went from 1.8% marketshare in January to 3.5% in February then down to .5% in March. This roller coaster ride makes the data sources seem a bit questionable...

I guess it supports the old saying that statistics are wrong 98% of the time.

Oh, and the good news is that Changewave also put out a study saying:

A survey of more than 4,400 people between August 4 and August 12 conducted by RBC Capital Markets and ChangeWave Research showed that 34% plan to buy a Mac laptop in the next 90 days, compared with 31% in May. Those planning to buy a Mac desktop rose to 30% from 27%. Meanwhile, 81% of those who recently bought an Apple product in the past 90 days were “very satisfied,” while only 58% Dell Inc. buyers and 55% Hewlett-Packard Co. buyers said the same.

So statistically, it was a dead even day for Apple stats.

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