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Why Clinton victory doesn't compute

The polls had Hillary Clinton losing by 9 percentage points in New Hampshire. She won by 3. So why were the polls off by such a wide margin?

Talking heads have been asking this question all morning - and then not answering it. Instead, they point to demograpic slices of the electorate from the exit polls, such as the data showing that most women voted for Hillary. Or they speculate that the now famous Hillary-getting-all-weepy-in-the-diner incident suddenly changed minds.

The former explains who voted but not why the polls were wrong. The latter is just plain bunk. Much as the media would like to believe it's so, the election didn't turn on one 11th hour teary sound bite.

I can see two possible reasons why the polls were wrong:

1. The polls were flawed, or

2. There was a sudden shift in voter preferences at the last minute.

There is some data to support the theory that in the the very high voter turnout in New Hampshire included disproportionately larger or smaller representation of some groups (women, young people) than what was reflected in the survey samples.

But the polls were also changing very quickly. Witness Barak Obama's last minute surge in the the last two polls over the weekend. In an unpredictable race with so many undecided voters, it's possible that the ground simply shifted again.

Then again, the polls did very well in representing the final results for the other candidates, such as Edwards and McCain.

Conspiracy theorists might want to chime in here with e-voting fraud explanation. But then, much of New Hampshire still uses paper ballots.

So what is the truth?

 

 

 

What People Are Saying

In your last paragraph you

In your last paragraph you say much of New Hampshire uses paper ballot so Clinton's win couldn't have been voting machine fraud.

Why didn't you investigate a little further? The tally of paper ballots, excluding the machine count, gives the win to Obama.

The paper ballots also choose Ron Paul over Rudy Giuliani.

It's also interesting to note that with all the other candidates, the voting machine poll percentages match the paper ballot poll, indicating that only results for those candidates, Clinton, Obama, Paul and Giuliani were manipulated.

All the latest on voter fraud

Breaking news, voter fraud verfied in NH, for all the latest details go to www.prisonplanet.com if this was not blocked I highly recommend you read all the information.

The Truth?

The truth is that polling is meaningless. Predicting an election is less accurate than predicting the weather.

Polling is far from

Polling is far from meaningless. This is why it is such a lucrative business. You will realize how meaningFULL polling is once you realise the agenda behind it. It is not meant to PREDICT anything. It is meant to PROJECT.

Polls are used to FORM opinion, not REFLECT it. Wake up please. The rest of us need your participation, else we remain the victim of the fraud perpetrated upon the whole world.

We hang together or we hang separate.

I believe that some of the

I believe that some of the media coverage and the Clintons are in bed together. The crying stunt and the amazing come from behind victory was a scam to bloster Hiliary's image. As she as said countless times, she as a lot of experience. She knows how to play the game and work the media and influence public opinion. Hiliary had NH, it is not a suprise. But they (Clintons) are trying to make it seem more than it actually is. I believe Barak Obama did very well in that state. He is accomplishing so much for someone who has "so little experience. To say it was a come from behind victory for Hiliary takes away from Obama's achievement of coming in second by only 3% from a SEASONED politican like Hiliary. It also detracts from the fact that Hiliary almost lost in NH, where she was almost assured to win. Her campaign realised Obama was a bigger threat than they originally thought after Iowa. So they had to do something and they did. So she looks great and already they are calling Obama the underdog. God I hope America is smart enough to see through the Clinton garabage. She is no better than Bush.

vote fraud

can we even call "evote fraud" a conspiracy theory anymore? i thought it was common knowledge by now. kinda like the world being round.
peace, & remember, friends dont let friends watch fox news

81 % of the votes

http://www.blackboxvoting.org/

The exact same make, model and version hacked in the Black Box Voting project in Leon County is used throughout New Hampshire, where about 45 percent of elections administrators hand count paper ballots at the polling place, with the remaining locations all using the Diebold version 1.94w optical scan machine. Because the voting machine locations tend to be urban, this represents about 81 percent of the New Hampshire voters.

And with the Republican race, I wouldn't look first at fraud in the number one position. I'd look for it in the area of repositioning candidates in the second through sixth spot.

- The delay in results is a red flag.
- The vote totals going down during the count is a red flag.
- The failure to release county results in live time, as promised in a Republican Party press release on Jan. 2, is a red flag.
- The failure to release precinct totals at all is a corrupt procedure. Note that the day before the caucuses, after much pressure, the Republicans did (belatedly) promise to release the precinct results on election night. They didn't.

In addition: I'm trying to get information on whether the public was kicked out of the room during hand counting in all locations, or just some.

I will be publishing some reports by caucus attendees in the "Front Lines" section later today.

There is absolutely no reason to consider any of the Republican caucus results to be credible.

I'm not saying they are wrong, I am saying the breakdown in checks and balances was stunning enough to call it not a magic show, but a bad magic show.

Bev Harris

Polls are rigged, election

Polls are rigged, election was rigged...

rigged rigged rigged RIGGED

And no "Diebold" machines counted something like 81% of the votes.

And there are major discrepancies across the board.

Hopefully one of the candidates who were cheated will demand a recount.

Theres already been evidence of some major tampering

The officials in Sutton have

The officials in Sutton have ADMITTED they did not report certain votes. Those of you who are still looking for a "simpler answer" are sleeping on the job. The simplest answer is the most obvious answer, and it is the one being confirmed by those who were responsible for the votes.

CERTAIN VOTES WERE NOT REPORTED

As long as intelligent people continue to bury their head in the sand, these "discrepencies" will continue. In other words, these bastards steal elections because you let them. You aren't looking for a "simpler" answer. You are looking for the most complicated answer as possible in order to reason away the cognative dissonance which occurs upon the realization that you are a slave, and your vote doesn't count.

Before you stomp your feet and throw a tantrum about "conspiracy theories" this is the confirmed statement of THOSE WHO COUNTED THE VOTES IN SUTTON, not my personal THEORY. Wake up and smell the voter fraud. What kind of person who has computer knowledge and access to the internet still believes that election fraud is a conpsiracy theory? A child, regardless of their age. Election fraud is so obvious and such the norm it has become a movie of the week. I pray to whatever god you believe in that you people grow up, because you are taking the whole country down with your ignorance.

Yes, New Hampshire uses

Yes, New Hampshire uses paper ballots. But in much of the state, those ballots are counted by machine. It would be interesting to see how the current totals compare to a hand recount.