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Mike Elgan's picture
Mike Elgan

The World Is My Office

Why the BlackBerry Thunder will fail

PATMOS, GREECE -- The "Fruit Wars" are heating up, with Apple expected to launch a hot new version of the iPhone, and RIM slated to launch a new "iPhone Killer" called the BlackBerry Thunder -- one that shares the iPhone's conspicuous lack of a physical keyboard.

I expect Apple to stick to its strengths and ship an all-screen, no-keyboard iPhone that's just like the current iPhone, but with better and additional options.

RIM recently demonstrated the right way to compete against the iPhone threat to its dominance by announcing the BlackBerry Bold 9000, which matches the iPhone's screen resolution (not its size), may beat the iPhone to both the 3G and GPS parties, and sports a sweet QWERTY keyboard. It's screen does not accept touch or stylus input.

I haven't tested it yet, but I'll bet that with its tri-band HSDPA and quad-band EDGE the Bold proves to be one of the best business cell phones ever.

Another RIM phone, the soon-to-be-announced BlackBerry Thunder (the rumors about which were confirmed in a report today in the Wall Street Journal) will feature all-screen, no-keyboard input (only a software keyboard like the iPhone).

Canada is a free country, so of course RIM can launch any kind of phone they want. But I question the wisdom of launching an all-screen touch-input phone that will go head-to-head with the iPhone.

Apple wasn't first to launch a no-keyboard, all-screen phone. But the popularity of the iPhone induced a flood of imitators, and all the "iPhone killers" have failed to make a dent.

What few in the industry seem to understand is that the iPhone's big touch screen isn't what's great about the iPhone. The big screen merely facilitates and showcases the iPhone's greatness.

The best thing about the iPhone -- in fact, the only truly groundbreaking thing -- is the UI, with its slick, minimalist implementation of multi-touch, gestures and physics.

The second best thing about the iPhone is its built-in iPod and its instant, built-in wireless connectivity to iTunes.

The worst thing about the iPhone is its lack of keyboard.

The iPhone's on-screen keyboard is at best a bitter pill worth swallowing in order to get that sweet iPhone UI and great iTunes media experience on a bigger screen.

The RIM Thunder will offer the worst feature of the iPhone -- the lack of a keyboard -- but without mitigating the omission with a magical UI or mature, proven and popular system for buying and managing media over wireless. (It will probably sync music with a PC installation of iTunes, but won't be able to connect to iTunes directly as the iPhone does.)

I haven't checked the temperature in hell recently, but it seems unlikely that a huge number of users will want such a device.

I'm predicting that the BlackBerry Thunder will prove to be an embarrassing failure for RIM. Check back at the end of the year and I'll revisit my prediction to either gloat or eat crow.

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What People Are Saying

Cross eyes business people.....ya

I have a new Blackberry 8350i,I hate it had it for 4 weeks.Slower then dial up with the data part.
No its not my provider.
Texting & calender are the only good thing about this thing.

Anyone who is going to conduct regular daily business on a 3" screen is going to become crossed eye.

My kids both have the Ipod Touch,That screen alone is reason for me to switch over to a Iphone.

I am stuck with needing the IDEN part,for the moment.

I will be switching.Maybe all I need is a phone,and an Itouch.

A phone is a business tool, not the swiss army knife of the business world,and thats what the Blackberry is to me.

With the success of the

With the success of the Blackberry Storm i bet you don't feel that smart now do you? I mean apparently you shouldn't make predictions.

mike elgan, don't choke on

mike elgan, don't choke on those feathers! :)

You sure are going to eat crow

Buddy, you sure are going to eat lots of crow. I do appreciate your article is 4-5 months old, but you should update your research and have your statements re-written. The new Thunder/Storm has a screen resolution and new touch-screen-keyboard that will make Apple, its users (and probably you too) green with envy. Just wait few more days and see (and touch it) for yourself.

I agree that you clearly

I agree that you clearly have no idea the impact blackberry has on the business sector as many people have commented. Blackberry is made for business. Apple could only dream to come as far RIM has in the business market. Majority of major corporations have contracts with RIM and only provide blackberry phones to employees mainly because ONLY Blackberry phones have Microsoft Exchange Server support. When it comes down to checking your business email, only blackberry phones will be able to access the exchange server to view Microsoft Outlook business email. iPhone will probably never get that far. They're too concerned with the general consumer market as RIM is more concerned with the professional market more than anyone. This is why they will flourish and NOT fail as you state.

iphone and exchange

I was forced a few weeks ago to start using an Iphone. New GM wanted it and i had to support it. After picking this thing up i got to tell you, its slick. The exchange connector works as good as any smart phone, email is fast and i have all my address books and calendar items. Point being, Exchange support is for many devices, BB just ties in real neat whn you run the enterprise server. Outside of that, Nothing relly special about it.

As far as the corporations go. I too have seen many industries being BB only. But it wasnt due to any deals with BB. It was a provider thing. If im a verizon customer... im not going to change all my users to at&t just for iphone. But if my users have smart phones anyway, they will like the iphone. RIM wont fail anytime soon, but neither will the iphone. Smartphones are pulling more and more market all the time, especially since exchange becomes more friendly to the devices.

Clearly your artice shows

Clearly your artice shows your lack of experience with wireless markets likewise your ignorance for how the market works. Having said that, you should do a comparison of the number of blackberry users vs iphone users and tally how many are actually waiting for the thunder.

You failed to realize that RIM has a monopoly on the business sector of cell phones also backed by companies that have budgets to purchase new phones every year. Never mind iTunes, never mind the commonalities of uploading pictures, playing music, and recording video, Try syncing a iphone with a company email and tell me how far you get.

The Bold/Thunder will be a HUGE success. (The thunder also makes a great christmas gift with its launch sometime in November)

you totally missed the point

Who does Blackberry cater to? Business people. How many business people do you think would like to get an iPhone if it was worth a crap for business? Regardless of whether the iPhone had a battery that lasted, I would be all over it if it could open and edit documents and be altogether more appropriate for business. So many people forget about the business users and it is such a big market for Apple to ignore. Completely shortsighted! Blackberry's being smart and actually going after the "bridge users" who want a business applicable phone PLUS a slick interface, good browsing and a decent multimedia package.

It might have the worst

It might have the worst feature of the IPhone, but let's talk about what RIM has that Apple/AT&T will never be able to touch. That is the Verizon Wireless network. I have had every cellular service, and they are the best, by far. The IPhone as a business tool is a joke on the AT&T network. It might be 3G now, but the 3G coverage is sparse compared to the ever-growing 3G network from Verizon. Wi-fi access might be great for direct connection into I-Tunes, but there are many affordable ways to purchase music other than through Apple. Blackberry has consistently put out durable and top notch business handsets which address the concerns of the majority of business owners and controllers in every industry. They also provide outstanding technical support, especially when coupled with the in store support provided by Verizon Wireless. AT&T and the IPhone try as they may, will never top the business experience provided by the partnership of RIM and Verizon Wireless.

I manage dozens of

I manage dozens of Blackberry Enterprise Servers and dozens of exchange servers.

BES is glitchy and i hate the fact that its centralized. Just another point of failure for no reason except to maintain subsciption fee's.

I hate Blackberry's and RIM. Please someone make an enterpise smartphone that kills this junk.

The iphone will wipe the floor with RIM if carriers realize they are simply conduits and stop trying to extort everyone with value added features.