Why the BlackBerry Thunder will fail
- TAGS:Apple, Blackberry, iPhone, RIM
- IT TOPICS:Mobile & Wireless
PATMOS, GREECE -- The "Fruit Wars" are heating up, with Apple expected to launch a hot new version of the iPhone, and RIM slated to launch a new "iPhone Killer" called the BlackBerry Thunder -- one that shares the iPhone's conspicuous lack of a physical keyboard.
I expect Apple to stick to its strengths and ship an all-screen, no-keyboard iPhone that's just like the current iPhone, but with better and additional options.
RIM recently demonstrated the right way to compete against the iPhone threat to its dominance by announcing the BlackBerry Bold 9000, which matches the iPhone's screen resolution (not its size), may beat the iPhone to both the 3G and GPS parties, and sports a sweet QWERTY keyboard. It's screen does not accept touch or stylus input.
I haven't tested it yet, but I'll bet that with its tri-band HSDPA and quad-band EDGE the Bold proves to be one of the best business cell phones ever.
Another RIM phone, the soon-to-be-announced BlackBerry Thunder (the rumors about which were confirmed in a report today in the Wall Street Journal) will feature all-screen, no-keyboard input (only a software keyboard like the iPhone).
Canada is a free country, so of course RIM can launch any kind of phone they want. But I question the wisdom of launching an all-screen touch-input phone that will go head-to-head with the iPhone.
Apple wasn't first to launch a no-keyboard, all-screen phone. But the popularity of the iPhone induced a flood of imitators, and all the "iPhone killers" have failed to make a dent.
What few in the industry seem to understand is that the iPhone's big touch screen isn't what's great about the iPhone. The big screen merely facilitates and showcases the iPhone's greatness.
The best thing about the iPhone -- in fact, the only truly groundbreaking thing -- is the UI, with its slick, minimalist implementation of multi-touch, gestures and physics.
The second best thing about the iPhone is its built-in iPod and its instant, built-in wireless connectivity to iTunes.
The worst thing about the iPhone is its lack of keyboard.
The iPhone's on-screen keyboard is at best a bitter pill worth swallowing in order to get that sweet iPhone UI and great iTunes media experience on a bigger screen.
The RIM Thunder will offer the worst feature of the iPhone -- the lack of a keyboard -- but without mitigating the omission with a magical UI or mature, proven and popular system for buying and managing media over wireless. (It will probably sync music with a PC installation of iTunes, but won't be able to connect to iTunes directly as the iPhone does.)
I haven't checked the temperature in hell recently, but it seems unlikely that a huge number of users will want such a device.
I'm predicting that the BlackBerry Thunder will prove to be an embarrassing failure for RIM. Check back at the end of the year and I'll revisit my prediction to either gloat or eat crow.



