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Scott McPherson's picture
Scott McPherson

Tiptoeing Through Minefields

Why you should be looking at Mexico NOW.

You know, influenza is a remarkable disease.  All the while we have been looking at Asia for signs of a flu pandemic, and wouldn't you know that the most serious pandemic threat since SARS manifests itself within the borders of our neighbor to the south!

I won't bother reciting all the facts and informed speculation regarding the sudden (and I mean SUDDEN) emergence of Mexican H1N1 swine flu.  For that, you can go to my blogsite, www.scottmcpherson.net, and get caught up better and faster than on any other blogsite in the Known Universe.

In a nutshell:  In just the last couple of weeks, a brand-new, never-before-seen strain of H1N1 swine flu has emerged in Mexico.  It is an avian/swine/human hybrid that no one has ever seen before.  It is suspected of infecting nearly 1,000 Mexican people, and has possibly killed 60.  This, according to the World Health Organization, which is not prone to wild-eyed speculation.

The virus has already jumped the border with the United States, infecting at least seven people in two distinct clusters in San Diego, California and San Antonio, Texas.

The Centers for Disease Control says the method of transmission is believed to be person-to-person. 

The WHO has not yet raised the external pandemic threat level, but mark my words that if this virus' footprint is found in Europe, or in Asia, they will go from 3 to 4.  The WHO has raised their internal activation to a more serious level.

What does this mean to you, IT-person?  If you are an IT manager or CIO, it means you need to be reviewing your pandemic plans now, and familiarizing yourself with them again immediately. 

It is probably too late to buy anything, or to buy anything more.  Besides, who has the money to buy anything, anyway?  Likewise, organizations' leaders are only now awakening to the very real possibility that this new virus might not eventually be contained by the Mexican government, the WHO or the CDC.

So all we can do is educate our people (quickly!), plan, and watch.

How much time do we have?  Pandemics originating in Asia were expected to bring a virus to our doorsteps within three weeks.  A pandemic originating in Latin America?  Well, you look at the flights to Miami, Dallas, New York, LA -- and the fact the Mexican government has closed all the schools in Mexico City until they can get their minds around the situation.  A pandemic from Latin America will get to us much more quickly than we realize.

What People Are Saying

More people died from

More people died from malaria in the last 30 minutes than all the people since the start of the epidemic. Thousands die from the flu every year!

Please Scott, don't start shooting coughing Mexicans on sight. :)

A real shame..

There was Obama down in Mexico shaking hands and
breathing the virus laden air...

and nothing... :(

No, the REAL shame is that

No, the REAL shame is that we can't give YOU a ONE-WAY ticket to Mexico !

not in US news

My unusually well informed and written post(for me!) did not appear! I will give a summery some key points.

The outbreak was first reported in Mexico city in March.
The current official death toll is 81 in Mexico city and climbing, unofficial reports as high as 300. The military has been passing out masks! Several countries with obviously more common sense have stopped flights to Mexico city (the current 11 US cases have been linked to travelers returning from Mexico city)

Please read the BBC news article as this outbreak is over a month old and is just now appearing on US network news. Please read reports directly from Mexico and the private blogs of the doctors involved.

It's about time...

We're overdue for a population-reducing pandemic. I say "bring it on". There are way too many people choking this planet as it is. Reduce the population by about 80% and we'll have a much healthier planet to sustain us another milenium or two. It's going to happen eventually, there's no stopping Nature from cleaning house once in a while. It's normal, it's evolution.

I assume you are

I assume you are volunteering to be among the first to die and reduce the surplus population, since you feel so strongly about this.

LOL!

LOL!

Mexico is in North America,

Mexico is in North America, not Central America, know your geography, goddamnit! and the virus came from the US, it originated there NOT IN MEXICO.

information

Correct Mexico in in North American, Incorrect the virus was first detected in Mexico over a month ago and has killed at least 81(official).
From the BBC Have your say:

"I work as a resident doctor in one of the biggest hospitals in Mexico City and sadly, the situation is far from "under control". As a doctor, I realise that the media does not report the truth. Authorities distributed vaccines among all the medical personnel with no results, because two of my partners who worked in this hospital (interns) were killed by this new virus in less than six days even though they were vaccinated as all of us were. The official number of deaths is 20, nevertheless, the true number of victims are more than 200. I understand that we must avoid to panic, but telling the truth it might be better now to prevent and avoid more deaths."
Yeny Gregorio Dávila, Mexico City

This outbreak is over a month old in Mexico. Other countries have stopped flights into Mexico city where the outbreak is most prevalent. The USA will of course cater to the businesses and the political correct crowd before it listens to the CDC and it will be far to late to do anything.

Even if this potentially devastating outbreak is contained, we need to listen to the doctors at the CDC and allow them to make decisions regarding controlling the spread of illness and not leave it in the hands of people who are more worried about re-election than keeping the body count down.

H1N1

it does look like it originated in Mexico - industrial pig farming:

http://civileats.com/2009/04/25/swine-flu-linked-to-smithfield-pig-cafo/

here is the timeline:

http://biosurveillance.typepad.com/biosurveillance/2009/04/swine-flu-in-mexico-timeline-of-events.html

what is odd is the Eurasian component of the strain - so far this is being blamed on a sick 'Chinese traveler" to Mexico City having contact w/ someone who then traveled back to the farm, hmmmm