Apple devices could soon outsell Windows PCs, claims analyst

Windows machines have long outsold Apple's by a wide margin -- in one year PCs outsold Macs by a margin of 56 Windows PCs to every Mac. But in the next several years, taking into account iOS devices, Apple may outsell Windows PCs and never look back.

That's the conclusion of tech analyst Horace Dediu of Asymco. He's charted sales of Macs versus PCs starting in 1984 with the launch of the Mac. In that first year, he says, only 372,000 Macs were sold, versus 2 million Windows PCs. That means that Windows PCs were outselling Macs by a ratio of nearly six to one.

By the middle 1990s, Windows machines were outselling Macs by a far wider margin, until by 2004, they were outselling Macs by a remarkable 56-to-one ratio. The operating system wars seem to be settled forever.

Windows PCs continued to outsell Macs by wide margins, but Apple began whittling away the lead due to MacBook sales, Dediu says. By 2010, the ratio was down to 19-to-one, still a substantial lead for Windows machines, but nothing near 56-to-one.

But when you take account of iPad and iPhone sales, you see very different numbers. He claims that when you take those sales into account, by 2010 the ratio had dropped all the way down to two-to-one in favor of Windows. He concludes:

"Considering the near future, it's safe to expect a "parity" of iOS+OS X vs. Windows within one or two years. The install base may remain larger for some time longer but the sales rate of alternatives will swamp it in due course."

In other words, within a few years, Apple devices will outsell Windows-based devices. He then warns:

"The consequences are dire for Microsoft. The wiping out of any platform advantage around Windows will render it vulnerable to direct competition. This is not something it had to worry about before. Windows will have to compete not only for users, but for developer talent, investment by enterprises and the implicit goodwill it has had for more than a decade.

"It will, most importantly, have a psychological effect. Realizing that Windows is not a hegemony will unleash market forces that nobody can predict."

His prediction explains why Microsoft is willing to spend billions of dollars on developing and marketing Windows Phone and Windows 8 tablets. And it also explains why Microsoft has designed Windows 8 more for tablets than for PCs, in the hopes that when people get used to the operating system on their PCs, they'll be more likely to buy tablets and smartphones based on it.

As I've said before, though, I don't believe that strategy is a winner. Apple took the core of OS X, and then built an operating system best suited for mobile devices. That's why iOS has taken off. Microsoft is trying to force-fit the same operating system onto both PCs and tablets, which is why I believe Windows 8 won't take off, either on tablets or PCs. Unless Microsoft changes course, Dediu's prediction may become true.

Preston Gralla is a contributing editor for Computerworld and author of more than 40 books, including "Windows 8 Hacks" and "How the Internet Works". You can follow him on Twitter or Google+.