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Windows Vista 'New Coke' of operating systems?
30 comments- TAGS:forrester, Linux, Net Applications, Vista, Windows
- IT TOPICS:Macintosh & Apple, Mobile & Wireless, Personal Technology
Forrester research compared the enterprise adoption of Windows Vista to the disastrous introduction 'New Coke' back in July. That's actually a pretty good analogy. I even think Microsoft will be readily willing to admit it too -- as soon as Windows 7 is ready to replace it in the 'Classic' sense. Two reports came out this week which show that Microsoft continues to fall in both operating systems and browsers.
It's been over two years since Microsoft launched Windows Vista, but fewer than 10 percent of PCs in the enterprise are running the successor to the company's eight-year-old Windows XP. That's only up from 8.8 percent in July. Still, a very Microsoft-friendly Forrester Research report uses this data to say that 31% of businesses are "Warming to the idea of Vista".
Perhaps because there isn't, as of yet, a way to upgrade directly from XP to Windows 7?
Considering that no matter what IT Managers end up putting on their desktops, new PC sales are tallied as Vista sales, that's not a high number. The only computers that can register as XP sales are the consumer-friendly Netbooks which are essentially useless with Vista on them. Sure Sony bravely puts Vista on their Viao P, but everyone who can get their hands one a can also get their hands on Windows 7.
A simple and more telling web metric, the monthly Net Applications rating of OS's and browsers, reveals that Microsoft is steadily losing market share in both.
and OS Market share:
And they have been losing steadily for over a year. They've lost 2.2 percentage points just since October. There is no possible way for Forrester or anyone else to spin this in a positive light for Microsoft. In fact, I predict that, with the sharp uptick in XP powered Netbooks, if Net Applications broke out XP vs. Vista share in OS, Vista would be lucky to be flat in growth.
Even limited beta Windows 7 share is rising as Windows is falling overall.
The landscape is changing dramatically for Microsoft. With the Web being almost the whole computer and many acceptable OSes to choose from, Windows is no longer the de facto choice. Microsoft has almost no presence in Mobile either. With iPhones, Blackberries and new Androids all using a Webkit browser instead of IE, there is no question that the future isn't a Microsoft dominated one. Internet Explorer isn't the only browser that web designers have to design for (though, sadly, some still do).
Just as Coke and Pepsi aren't the only beverage choices in the drink aisle, when Windows 7 is ready for prime time, there will be a lot more competitors to choose from and Microsoft's 'Classic' dominance will be far less certain.
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