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XP lives! Sort of.

Congratulations Linux. Yesterday was the day you made Microsoft blink. Microsoft has changed its mind and has decided to keep XP Home around after all.

I'm sure that Microsoft's change in heart was in part due to efforts like InfoWorld's Save XP efforts, which put names to over 200,000 users who don't want to move to Vista. I'm even surer though that what really changed Microsoft's mind is that Linux, and not Windows, was taking over the red-hot UMPC (Ultra Mobile PC) market.

Microsoft admitted as much in its announcement at the Computex trade show in Taipei, Taiwan that it would allow computer manufacturers to pre-install Windows XP Home on "low-cost desktops" through June 30, 2010. A Microsoft spokesperson told ComputerWorld that "One thing Microsoft has heard loud and clear, from both customers and partners, is the desire for Windows on this new class of devices [UMPCs, MID (Mobile Internet Devices), and net top devices]. It is important to Microsoft that they meet the needs of their partners and customers, and this is why the Windows XP Home offering is being extended to include net top devices."

Since when has Microsoft given a hoot about what its partners and customers wanted? Microsoft's own brass couldn't stand Vista and Vista sales have tanked, but Microsoft only quietly squeaks out the news about XP Home's new lease on life and Vista is what they're still pushing.

No, what has really happened is that the smashing success of Asus with its Eee Xandros Linux-powered UMPC and other Linux equipped mini-notebooks like Everex's gOS-powered UMPCs caught Microsoft completely by surprise. It turned out people wanted inexpensive, hard-working Linux laptops rather than overpriced, underpowered Vista PCs.

If anyone thought this was a flash in the pan, that Asus just hit it lucky once, they haven't been paying attention. Intel is putting big bucks into its Atom family of processors, which have been designed for UMPCs, or as Intel would have it, MIDs. Intel has encouraged both the computer makers and the Linux companies in its Moblin initiative to run desktop Linux.

The Linux companies have picked up on this. Canonical, Ubuntu's dad company, has come up with an UMPC-specific version of Ubuntu 8.04, the latest version of this popular Linux distribution, for Intel Atom UMPCs. At Computex, by my count, more than a dozen new UMPCs were announced both from vendors you've never heard of and from big name companies like Acer and Asus. You can also expect to see Dell releasing its 'mini-Inspiron' with Ubuntu by June's end.

So, Microsoft has been forced by the success of Linux and the UMPC to extend XP Home's life. What it can't do much about is the price. The Linux systems are cheaper, and, since they can work and play well with business networks, which is more than XP Home could ever do, I see them getting popular for business users.

Who knows? At the rate things are going maybe Microsoft will be forced to extend XP Pro's life as well. In the meantime, the Linux desktop is growing faster than ever and Vista is looking more and more like Microsoft's stupidest operating system release ever. Yes, even counting Windows ME and MS-DOS 4.0.

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What People Are Saying

What Smashing Success

Why is it that bloggers who don't like Microsoft never use data when they talk about the "smashing success" of Linux based products. It's one thing to be pro-Linux, but don't lie to your audience. How many linux-based mobile PC have you seen on the street lately. The only smashing mobile success story is Apple's iPhone and that is built on a closed operating system as well. So please get real!

You left out MS's restrictions

The most interesting thing about this "change of heart" is that Microsoft is restricting the use (at least by UMPC manufacturers) of XP to very limited hardware --
hardware with specs virtually identical to the first iteration UMPCs already come to market.

ie.
CPUs no better than 1 GHz (single-core).
no more than 1 GB of RAM,
hard-drives no bigger than 80 GB
(flash drives no bigger than 4 GB),
and screens no larger than 10 inches
(and no touch-screens, either).

In other words, they're trying to define these devices as toys and as gadgets for (in their own words) students and "first-time computer users", who need cheap devices "primarily used for e-mail, accessing the Internet and instant messaging".

And please notice how MS is trying to re-define/re-label UMPCs (Ultra Mobile PCs) as ULPCs (Ultra Low-cost PCs).

Great article Stephen. The

Great article Stephen.

The more I see what is happening to Microsoft the more I think this is a rerun of the decline and fall of the Roman Empire.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decline_of_the_Roman_Empire

Regards

Ramiro

Moore's Law

Moore's Law and related technology can keep bringing down the price of most of the hardware in one of the low-end gadgets for another few years. During that time, M$'s licence fees will stick out like a sore thumb. ASUS and others seem to be unable to make GNU/Linux and XP available on identical hardware so consumers could actually see the effect of the OS on price, but still a huge share of this market will go to GNU/Linux and that hurts M$ just when their favourite markets are slumping. They have shown no capability to produce a new version within a few years so they are stuck with XP. They have to cut prices seriously. This is great leverage for OEMs. I wonder when an OEM will demand the right to sell XP to all takers if they agree to install it on the small devices? M$ will lose a huge chunk of an expanding market if they kill XP.

Competition is healthy

Finally - market forces are requiring Microsoft to adapt to *customer* requirements.

Regardless of the opinions (pro and con) of the EU decisions affecting Microsoft, it's really positive to see Linux finally start to make an honest company of Microsoft.

Yea - it'll take a while, but it's a step in the right direction!

Microsoft money comes mostly

Microsoft money comes mostly from two streams: Office and OEM. What Asus and others UMPCs manufacturers did by choosing Linux over any MS product is hitting straight the MS weak spot: OEMs. It started slowly with Dell, then others followed on the normal PC and laptops. Yet, this didn't hurt as much as the UMPCs does.

Don't forget each eee sold with Linux by asus means 1 less laptop sold with MS Vista. And MS surely didn't see that coming before it was too late. Thanks to the OLPC project for showing us that the computer prices were way over what they really worthed, leading to classmate and, later on, to UMPCs.

Sadly I don't think Microsoft will ever be able to take out that hit uninjured. Their OS is way too huge and monolistic to be customizable to lower the cpu/RAM/disk charge. And how does these UMPC can be so cheap? By using dated products and working mostly on tweaking linux for maximum performance instead of the old "add a bigger processor" MS philosophy. Now let's see how the MS response will look like and if it'll work.

Linux still have a lot to do before being able to be as plug and play as Windows, but it sure is lowering the gap.

patch and pray

Have you ever installed windows and had it detect most of your hardware? Without the installation CDs that came with said hardware windows can't get much of it working. On the other hand Linux actually recognizes and configures most of the hardware on the machines I've installed it on automatically. Most distributions will also install the software for using the hardware.

Vista will come to the UMPC, too.

Moore's law will enable Vista to run on future versions of the UMPC, although Microsoft will have to improve its power usage profile.

But it's the pricing power of Linux that will hurt Microsoft.

Eventually, maybe

But maybe the comsumers would like to use progress to get even smaller UMPC's.

With the keyboard and screen they will not get smaller in 2 dimensions.

But they could get thinner and lighter.
They could also run longer on a smaller battery. And they could get even cheaper.

Maybe Moores law will get us faster UMPC's running ARM or MIPS.

This is great news!

Not that they are extending XP home but that they *had* to extend it to slow down the adoption of Linux.